··

God Morgon

Geopolitics · Europe · Sweden · Türkiye · the economy
Background

The Swedish general election of 13 September 2026

Sweden elected 349 members of the Riksdag on 13 September. The Social Democrats, the Left Party, the Centre Party and the Greens took 176 seats to 173, and Ulf Kristersson resigned as prime minister on 17 September. The four percent threshold kept nobody out: all eight parties cleared it, the Liberals by 1.3 points.

Verian gave the Liberals 1.9 percent in its August poll for SVT. They finished on 5.3 and took 19 seats, three more than in 2022. The Tidö bloc lost anyway, 173 seats to 176, the exact mirror of the result that gave it power four years ago.
The Swedish general election of 13 September 2026

Sweden voted on 13 September for the Riksdag, for 21 regional assemblies and for 290 municipal ones. The Riksdag's 349 seats are shared out in proportion to votes, but only among parties that win four percent nationally or twelve percent in one constituency. The threshold is why seats can move further than votes. Ulf Kristersson had governed since 2022 with the Moderates, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals, kept in office from outside by the Sweden Democrats. Those four are the Tidö parties.

The Liberals spent the year below the threshold and finished above it. Statistics Sweden put them at 2.5 percent in May, Novus at 2.2 in June and Verian at 1.9 for SVT in August. On any of those figures they would have taken no seats. Novus had them above four percent for the first time on 7 September, and at 5.8 on 9 September. The institute's last barometer before the vote showed the party slipping back. They finished on 5.3 percent and 19 seats, three more than in 2022.

The blocs converged as the Liberals rose. Novus had the opposition 9.6 points ahead in June and 2.6 ahead on 1 September; Verian put it at 10 points in August. In the preliminary result the difference was 0.7 points, our sum of the parties' shares, and the news agency TT put the opposition's lead at 50,359 votes. The Tidö parties won in 2022 by 176 seats to 173, a margin Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson put at about 46,000 votes. This time the same 176 to 173 fell the other way.

The Sweden Democrats fell from 20.5 to 17.5 percent, their first drop in support since entering parliament in 2010. The Social Democrats held first place on 28.0 percent, which Al Jazeera called one of their worst in more than 100 years. Magdalena Andersson had campaigned on a safer, richer and more cohesive Sweden, attacking the government over unemployment, bankruptcies and hospital queues. The Sweden Democrat Richard Jomshof called her a quisling. Both big parties promised to scrap what they call the mängdrabatt; the Riksdag passed the change on 13 August.

Some overseas ballots are counted only on the Wednesday after election day, and that count moved a single seat: the Left Party gained one and the Social Democrats lost one, both inside the winning bloc. The 176 to 173 split therefore stood from election night. The roll held 226,906 Swedes abroad, against more than 182,000 eligible in 2022. The Election Authority finished the preliminary count on 17 September and put turnout at 84.8 percent, against 84.21 in 2022. It usually settles the final result about a week after election day, and by 18 September it had not done so. Kristersson resigned on 17 September and on 18 September was leading a caretaker government until a new one takes office. The new Riksdag meets on 28 September.

2.4jan2.1feb2.3mar2.9apr2.4maj2.2jun
Support for the Liberals in the Novus voter barometer, January to June 2026 · percent of the vote in that month's poll · Source: Novus
The threshold for entering the Riksdag is 4.0 percent. All six points are in Table 2 of Novus's own June report, which lists the barometer month by month on the question "How would you vote if there were an election to the Riksdag today?". Fieldwork ran 7 to 18 January, 2 to 15 February, 14 to 18 March, 6 to 19 April, 4 to 17 May and 1 to 14 June 2026. The number of respondents varies a great deal, from 2,188 in March to 5,962 in June, so the early months are less precise than the late ones. Novus puts the margin of error for the Liberals in June at ±0.4 points and reports no statistically significant change for the party in any month from January to June, so the month-to-month movements should not be read as real swings. The distance down to the threshold is another matter: in both March and April Novus calls the Liberals statistically significantly below four percent. The July reading has no published table and is not included. Only Novus is in this series. It stops in June; the rise came in September and the party took 5.3 percent at the election.
”But the opposition parties have a clear advantage over a future Tidö government, especially once you count in a Liberal party that is extremely low, 2.6 points below the four percent threshold.”
Torbjörn SjöströmChairman of the polling institute Novus

The numbers

The result: the seats and the blocs
176 seats to 173
The opposition's four parties took 176 of the Riksdag's 349 seats against 173 for the Tidö parties. The Election Authority reports Social Democrats 99, Moderates 70, Sweden Democrats 62, Left Party 30, Centre Party 25, Christian Democrats 22, Greens 22 and Liberals 19; the bloc totals are ours. A majority needs 175. In the municipalities' catch-up count the Left Party gained a seat and the Social Democrats lost one against the election-night figures, and preliminary turnout came out at 84.8 percent. The authority usually settles the final result about a week after election day, and by 18 September it had not done so.
Valmyndigheten
The vote shares, party by party
Liberals 5.3%
Social Democrats 28.0 percent, Moderates 19.8, Sweden Democrats 17.5, Left Party 8.4, Centre Party 7.0, Christian Democrats 6.2, Greens 6.1, Liberals 5.3 and others 1.6. All eight Riksdag parties cleared the four percent threshold. Summed by bloc that gives the opposition 49.5 percent against 48.8, a difference of 0.7 points; the addition is ours. The news agency TT counted the opposition's lead as 50,359 votes.
SVT Nyheter
After the vote: the resignation and the government to come
Ulf Kristersson posted his resignation letter on X on 17 September, addressed to the Speaker, Andreas Norlén: "It is now for the Speaker to lead the coming steps towards forming a new government. So that this work can begin at once, I hereby ask to be relieved as prime minister." He and his ministers stay on as a caretaker government until a new one is in place. TT writes that the first attempt at forming a government is expected to go to Magdalena Andersson, and Ebba Busch objected the same day that the red-green parties have not automatically won power. The new Riksdag meets on 28 September and elects a speaker then. Forming a government took 37 days after the 2022 election and 129 days after the 2018 one.
Fokus
What the election did to the Social Democrats and the Sweden Democrats
The Sweden Democrats lost voter support for the first time since the party entered parliament in 2010, from 20.5 percent to 17.5. The Social Democrats held on to first place but recorded, Al Jazeera writes, one of their worst results in more than 100 years. Al Jazeera put their share at 28.1 percent on 15 September, before the count was complete; SVT's completed preliminary count gives 28.0.
Al Jazeera
Novus in the last fortnight: the Liberals clear the threshold
5.8%
On 1 September the Liberals rose 1.4 points with Novus but were still just below four percent, and the gap between the blocs had narrowed to 2.6 points. The reading of 7 September was the first to put the party above the threshold, at 4.3 percent, with the opposition on 50.3 percent against 47.9 for the Tidö side, a difference of 2.4 points. On 9 September Novus recorded 5.8 percent for the Liberals, and Torbjörn Sjöström called the move from 1.9 to 5.8 one of the most dramatic in modern Swedish polling. The institute's last barometer before election day, on 11 September, showed the party slipping back a little.
Novus
Verian's August reading for SVT
In Verian's August reading for SVT the opposition, meaning the Social Democrats, Greens, Centre Party and Left Party, took 53.9 percent against 43.9 for the Tidö parties, a lead of 10 points. The Centre Party was the summer's winner, rising from 5.4 percent in June to 8 percent in August. The Liberals were still below the threshold on 1.9 percent.
SVT Nyheter
Novus voter barometer, June 2026
Liberals 2.2%
Social Democrats 32.6 percent, Sweden Democrats 20.0, Moderates 16.6, Left Party 8.9, Greens 6.4, Centre Party 6.1, Christian Democrats 5.6, Liberals 2.2 with a margin of error of ±0.4. The gap between the government side and the opposition was 9.6 points in the opposition's favour, against 7.4 in May. On those figures the Liberals would have taken no seats. The only statistically significant change from May was the Moderates' fall of 1.6 points. Fieldwork ran 1 to 14 June 2026 and 5,962 eligible voters responded.
Novus
Statistics Sweden's party sympathy survey, May 2026
On the question of the result if there were an election today: Social Democrats 33.9 percent, Sweden Democrats 18.3, Moderates 17.3, Left Party 8.6, Greens 6.6, Centre Party 6.1, Christian Democrats 4.5, Liberals 2.5 and others 2.0. Statistics Sweden calls its intervals uncertainty margins, and they run from ±0.5 for the Liberals to ±1.2 for the Social Democrats. Fieldwork ran from 28 April to 28 May 2026 and 4,542 of 9,260 people approached responded.
Statistiska centralbyrån
Seats, threshold and adjustment
349 seats
The Riksdag has 349 seats, of which 310 are fixed constituency seats and 39 are adjustment seats. The fixed seats are shared between the parties by the modified Sainte-Laguë method, and the adjustment seats are then allocated so that the whole is as proportional to the national vote as possible. The main rule is that a party must win at least four percent of the vote nationally to take any seats. The exception is a party that wins at least twelve percent in one constituency, which may then share in the seats of that constituency alone.
Sveriges riksdag
The starting position: the 2022 result
176 seats to 173
Social Democrats 30.33 percent and 107 seats, Sweden Democrats 20.54 and 73, Moderates 19.10 and 68, Left Party 6.75 and 24, Centre Party 6.71 and 24, Christian Democrats 5.34 and 19, Greens 5.08 and 18, Liberals 4.61 and 16. Turnout was 84.21 percent of 7,775,390 eligible voters. The Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals and Sweden Democrats therefore sum to 176 seats against 173 for the other four. The Election Authority also records that 41,139 people voted at embassies and consulates and that 34,731 postal votes were received from abroad.
Valmyndigheten
The eight party leaders and SVT's interviews
SVT interviewed the leaders of all eight Riksdag parties in their home towns before election day: 23 August Sölvesborg, Jimmie Åkesson for the Sweden Democrats; 25 August Gothenburg, Simona Mohamsson for the Liberals; 27 August Gothenburg, Nooshi Dadgostar for the Left Party; 30 August Strängnäs, Ulf Kristersson for the Moderates; 1 September Uppsala, Magdalena Andersson for the Social Democrats; 3 September Uppsala, Ebba Busch for the Christian Democrats; 6 September Härnösand, Amanda Lind for the Greens; 8 September Östersund, Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist for the Centre Party.
SVT Nyheter
Overseas Swedes: how many, and when their votes are counted
226,906 overseas Swedes
The electoral roll for the 2026 election held 226,906 overseas Swedes and 483,182 first-time voters, out of 8,046,725 people entitled to vote in the Riksdag election. The roll was fixed 30 days before election day. At the 2022 election, SVT says, more than 182,000 overseas Swedes were eligible and only 32 percent voted, roughly 58,000 votes. SVT writes that the number on the roll has risen by almost 24 percent, but gives no baseline year for that figure. SVT also corrected its account of the count and writes that not all overseas votes are counted on election night, some only on the Wednesday after.
SVT Nyheter
The sentencing reform: the decision, the cost and the capacity
The government's bill on a new system of criminal penalties, prop. 2025/26:297, went to the Riksdag on 30 June 2026. For multiple offending it gives additional offences greater weight in sentencing, which starts from the combined penal value of the offences the defendant is convicted of. This is what the parties call scrapping the mängdrabatt. The justice committee settled its report on 12 August 2026, and the chamber adopted the bill on 13 August, a month before the election. The amendments enter into force on the day the government decides. The government writes that the Prison and Probation Service assesses that its need for places and staff arising from, among other things, these proposals can be met in 2040 at the earliest, and it puts the service's costs at about 41.1 billion kronor a year. In the campaign the Moderates promised on 3 August to prioritise getting the change through during the next term, and the Social Democrats said on 7 August that they would start with sexual offences.
Sveriges riksdag
NATO, the defence budget and what the parties actually disagree on
The Moderates state on their own defence-policy page that the Moderate-led government took Sweden into NATO on 7 March 2024, that the defence appropriation has risen from 75 billion kronor a year in 2022 to 175 billion a year in 2026, and that Sweden should reach NATO's spending target by 2030. The Social Democrats write that they want to deepen NATO cooperation, continue military support for Ukraine, protect development aid and run an updated feminist foreign policy. The Left Party opposed membership, wants a law banning nuclear weapons in Sweden and wants no permanent bases of foreign troops. The Greens voted no, respect the Riksdag's decision, do not pursue withdrawal and want legislation against nuclear weapons on Swedish soil in both peacetime and war.
Moderaterna

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

Knutson and Sjöström started from the same place: the opposition led, and it was Kristersson who had to close the gap. He closed almost all of it, from about ten points in the summer polls to 0.7 in the count, and lost by three seats.

Where they split

Kristersson argued that support for the right would grow once the election became a real choice between two alternatives. Knutson wrote that the campaign might already be decided unless the Tidö parties pulled off a historic recovery. The gap between the blocs went from 10 points in Verian's August reading to 0.7 in the count, and the Tidö parties still lost. Nobody settled the other argument, the one about the overseas vote: Oscarsson expected 70,000 to 80,000 votes from abroad and thought first-time voters mattered more, and no source here breaks the result down by either group.

What nobody is saying

Who will govern, and with whom. Kristersson leads a caretaker government and the new Riksdag meets on 28 September, but no source here names a cabinet or a coalition. Two of the four parties that now hold the majority, the Left Party and the Greens, opposed NATO membership and neither seeks withdrawal, and nothing here says what the four would do together in foreign policy. The sentencing reform passed in August has no start date either: the amendments enter into force on the day the government decides.

Who says what

Magdalena Andersson, Leader of the Social Democrats, the largest party at the 2026 election

Andersson tied her campaign to a world she called more dangerous and unpredictable than it had been in a long time, and gathered her policy into three promises: a safer, richer and more cohesive Sweden. In practice that meant stronger defence, more police and a Swedish mafia law, higher child benefit, an end to the first unpaid day of sick leave, a stop to profit-taking from free schools, and everyone learning Swedish. She avoided naming the Left Party and the Greens as partners.

Source: The Local Sweden · Monday, 3 August 2026 · Said at the launch of her campaign tour outside the party headquarters on Sveavägen in Stockholm on 3 August 2026. That she is reluctant to name the Left Party and the Greens as partners is Mats Knutson's observation in SVT the same day. We found no Swedish transcript of the speech, so no words are quoted verbatim.
Ulf Kristersson, Leader of the Moderates, prime minister from 2022, resigned on 17 September 2026

Kristersson played down the opposition's lead in the polls and argued that support for the right would grow once voters saw what the two blocs stood for on tax, crime and migration. He called Richard Jomshof's quisling accusations distasteful and indecent in an interview with Aftonbladet, and aimed his criticism at both Jomshof and the newspaper.

”Så säger man bara inte. Man kan ha en tuff politisk debatt och diskussion även om svåra saker. Men man måste kunna skilja på sak och person, det gäller ärligt talat både Jomshof och Aftonbladet.”You simply do not say that. You can have a tough political debate and discussion, even about difficult things. But you have to be able to separate the issue from the person, and frankly that goes for both Jomshof and Aftonbladet.
Source: SVT Nyheter · Tuesday, 4 August 2026 · SVT reports Kristersson's answer given to Aftonbladet. That he plays down the lead is taken from The Local's report on the launch of the campaign tour on 3 August 2026.
Richard Jomshof, Member of parliament for the Sweden Democrats and former chair of the justice committee

Jomshof called Aftonbladet's political editor Anders Lindberg a quisling on X, hours after Lindberg posted a video saying Jomshof could become justice minister in a Moderate-led government with Sweden Democrat ministers. He defended the word by pointing out that Lindberg himself had likened the prime minister to Franz von Papen, the German conservative who, as SVT puts it, played a decisive role in Hitler's rise to power. Shortly afterwards he called Magdalena Andersson a quisling too. Lindberg replied that opinion journalism is not treason, and Kristersson, Ebba Busch and Simona Mohamsson all criticised the tone.

”De kryper ju alla för islamisterna, vars mål är att ta vår demokrati och vårt land ifrån oss”They all crawl for the islamists, whose goal is to take our democracy and our country away from us
Source: SVT Nyheter · Tuesday, 4 August 2026 · Written by Jomshof on X and reported by SVT when he extended the accusation to Magdalena Andersson. The description of von Papen is SVT's own fact box, sourced to NE and the Holocaust Encyclopedia.
Mats Knutson, Domestic politics commentator at SVT

Knutson read the position as asymmetric. Kristersson needed a game changer, an event or announcement that would turn opinion quickly, while Andersson gained most by taking no risks. He also noted that the Tidö parties' budget spending had produced no result so far, and that they were pinning their hopes on undecided voters, up to 15 to 20 percent of the electorate in early-summer polling.

”En valrörelse som redan kan vara avgjord om inte Tidöpartierna presterar en historisk upphämtning under de 41 dagar som återstår till valdagen.”A campaign that may already be decided unless the Tidö parties pull off a historic recovery in the 41 days left until election day.
Source: SVT Nyheter · Monday, 3 August 2026
Torbjörn Sjöström, Chairman of the polling institute Novus

Sjöström put the decision in the threshold rather than in the gap between the blocs. In his analysis of the July barometer he wrote that the Liberals were lower than at any earlier reading in Novus's history, that is since 2006, and that the party picking up most of their voters was the Centre Party, which sits on the other side of the bloc line. He also argued that the old tactical-vote logic of the Alliance years was gone, so the small parties had to show they were needed in their own right.

”Men oppositionspartierna har ett klart övertag över en framtida Tidöregering, särskilt om man räknar in ett L som ligger extremt lågt, 2,6 procentenheter under 4-procentsspärren.”But the opposition parties have a clear advantage over a future Tidö government, especially once you count in a Liberal party that is extremely low, 2.6 points below the four percent threshold.
Source: Novus · Thursday, 23 July 2026 · From Sjöström's signed analysis accompanying the Novus voter barometer for July 2026. The July page publishes no results table, and the method paragraph on the same page is inconsistent: it refers to the June 2026 barometer while giving the period 6 to 9 July 2026 and 5,726 respondents. We therefore read Sjöström's words as his own description and not as a published figure. He signs the analysis as chairman of Novus.
Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson, Professor of political science at the University of Gothenburg

Oscarsson expected 70,000 to 80,000 votes from abroad and pointed out that first-time voters are many times more numerous. He called the 2022 election the third closest in Swedish democratic history, settled by about 46,000 votes, and said that only in a race that close could anyone point to the overseas votes as decisive, and elections are rarely that close. He described the group as very mixed, from tax exiles to students, and their ballots land in the same late pile as late-arriving early votes from within Sweden.

Source: The Local Sweden · Friday, 31 July 2026 · The Local publishes his remarks in English. We found no Swedish original wording, so no words are quoted verbatim.

Our coverage