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Background

Turkish foreign policy

Three crises have given Türkiye something to offer, and in Mecca it signed a joint defence agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. What Ankara wants for itself, the F-35, a seat after UNIFIL, Cyprus and the customs union, is still decided by others.

Drones have hit four Turkish ships in the Black Sea since 22 July. One crew member was killed on the Reyhan Sarı and three were injured; three of the 22 crew on the Yasar and Nadezhda were seriously hurt. Ankara has asked Russia and Ukraine for a moratorium and no agreement has followed.
Turkish foreign policy

Three crises have given Türkiye something other governments need. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent Iraq looking for other export routes, and Iraq's only working export line to the Mediterranean ends at Ceyhan. Security Council resolution 2790 gave the UN force in southern Lebanon a final mandate, to 31 December 2026. Erdoğan says more than 4,300 Lebanese have been killed since Israel's attacks began on 2 March 2026, and has offered Turkish help to rebuild the south. Russia's war has reached merchant shipping in the Black Sea.

The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement was signed on 7 August by Erdoğan, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Their joint statement says an armed attack on one of the three countries counts as an attack on all three. Hakan Fidan says the clause is technically like NATO's Article 5, but that the country attacked has to ask for help and say what it needs. Riyadh says the agreement is not an attempt to build a military axis.

What Türkiye has actually signed in Iraq is short-dated. The 1973 pipeline agreement expired on 27 July, an end date fixed a year earlier by a Turkish presidential decision. On 1 August the state firm Botas signed a one-year transit deal with Iraq's Somo and NOC, and a framework covering oil, electricity and water is still to be negotiated. TPAO agreed terms the same week to buy 15 percent of BP's Kirkuk company, subject to regulatory approval. The fields stay Iraqi state property and North Oil Company keeps running them.

Turkish ships are being hit in the Black Sea while Ankara appeals to both sides. A drone hit the Turkish-flagged Reyhan Sarı on 22 July, killing one crew member and injuring three. Drones struck the Turkish-owned Yasar and Nadezhda off Novorossiysk on 3 August, and three of the 22 crew were seriously injured. The Güllük was hit days later, with nobody hurt. The foreign ministry asked both belligerents to make navigation safe, naming neither. Türkiye has asked Russia and Ukraine for a moratorium on attacks on merchant ships, Fidan says.

Ankara's own list is older than those crises, and every item on it is somebody else's to grant. Washington threw Türkiye out of the F-35 programme in 2019 over its Russian S-400 air defence system. Trump said at July's NATO summit he would consider taking Türkiye back, and has decided nothing since. A Turkish place in whatever replaces UNIFIL is the Security Council's decision. Erdoğan wants a Cyprus settlement recognising what Ankara calls Turkish Cypriot sovereign equality, and Fidan blames the Greek Cypriot side for the stalled EU customs union.

”After the withdrawal of the current international force, we as Türkiye want to take part in all initiatives to be launched to support security in the region and ensure Lebanon's sovereignty”
Recep Tayyip ErdoğanPresident of Türkiye

The numbers

What the Mecca agreement says
The joint statement from the joint defence summit in Mecca on 7 August 2026 says the agreement is meant to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and that an armed attack on any one of the three states is to be regarded as an attack on them all. It also provides for closer defence cooperation between the three states in all its aspects.
Al Jazeera
How the Mecca agreement would work, and who else might join
Hakan Fidan described the clause as technically similar to NATO's Article 5, but the response would depend on the circumstances: a country under attack would have to request assistance and specify what kind of support it needed, from intelligence and logistics to ammunition or the deployment of military units. The three will set up political and military committees of foreign ministers, defence ministers and military chiefs, and a secretariat in Saudi Arabia. Fidan said preparations had run for nearly two years and eight months, and that he expected Egypt, which he called a natural partner, to join once outstanding technical issues were resolved.
Al Jazeera
UNIFIL's end date, set by the Security Council
31 Dec 2026
Resolution 2790, adopted on 28 August 2025, extended UNIFIL's mandate for a final time until 31 December 2026 and set out the functions the force may perform during the drawdown and withdrawal. It also asked the UN Secretary-General to explore, by 1 June 2026, options for the future implementation of resolution 1701 after UNIFIL has withdrawn. Security Council Report lists that letter, S/2026/453, as sent on 1 June 2026.
Security Council Report
The Kirkuk to Ceyhan pipeline deal
750,000 b/d
A one-year transit deal signed on Saturday 1 August 2026 between Türkiye's state firm Botas and Iraq's state oil companies Somo and NOC. Energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar described it as an arrangement covering a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels. The line has a maximum capacity of about 1.5 million barrels a day and currently carries about 170,000 barrels a day, according to Turkish data cited by Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera
The Turkish stake in Kirkuk
15%
TPAO, the Turkish state oil company Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı, is to acquire 15 percent of BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited, the vehicle through which BP supports the redevelopment of the Kirkuk fields. After completion the holdings are BP 43 percent, ConocoPhillips 42 percent and TPAO 15 percent. The fields are operated by North Oil Company and North Gas Company.
Iraq Business News
Why Iraq needs the northern route
over 80%
Iraqi oil exports collapsed by more than 80 percent in the weeks after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February 2026, and monthly oil revenues fell from around 6 billion dollars to under 2 billion. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced Baghdad to look for other export routes. The figures are as reported by Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera
What exclusion from the F-35 cost
Türkiye was removed from the multinational F-35 programme in 2019 after acquiring the Russian S-400 air defence system, and Washington later imposed sanctions on its defence procurement agency under the CAATSA act. Ankara says it invested roughly 1.4 billion dollars in the programme before its removal, and Turkish officials have repeatedly called for reinstatement.
Turkish Minute
Ankara's condition on Cyprus
Speaking after a cabinet meeting in Ankara on 29 July 2026, President Erdoğan restated that any future negotiation on Cyprus must recognise what Ankara describes as the sovereign equality of the Turkish Cypriots: "No initiative that ignores the sovereign equality, rights and legitimate interests of Turkish Cypriots in the eastern Mediterranean can be crowned with success." He described Türkiye's role on the island as a matter of national security. The remarks came hours after the UN Secretary-General ended talks with both sides on the island.
Cyprus Mail
The drone attacks on Turkish-owned ships
The cargo ships Yasar and Nadezhda were attacked after leaving Novorossiysk on the evening of Monday 3 August 2026. The Nadezhda was bound for Samsun and was hit about 20 nautical miles off Novorossiysk, according to the Turkish Maritime Authority. All 22 crew were brought to safety in Russia, three of them seriously injured. The ships fly the flags of Panama and Cameroon respectively but are owned by Turkish companies. Ukrainian officials have not commented on the attacks.
The Moscow Times
The EU customs union is stalled
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in a CNN Turk interview published on 3 July 2026 that the customs union must be modernised and that both sides agree on that, but that there is "an issue causing a blockage: the position taken by the Greek Cypriot side". He said Türkiye has no problem of intention or political will, and that the EU needs to resolve issues related to decision-making by unanimity within the bloc.
Cyprus Mail
Turkish ships hit in the Black Sea since 22 July
A drone struck the accommodation area of the Turkish-flagged dry cargo ship Güllük as it sailed toward the Russian port of Taman. No crew member was killed or injured, and the vessel continued toward Istanbul for a technical inspection. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian authorities commented, and responsibility remained unclear. On 22 July the Turkish-flagged dry cargo ship Reyhan Sarı was hit while carrying coal from Taman to Trabzon; one crew member was killed and three others injured, according to Turkish maritime reports.
Hürriyet Daily News

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan published the same joint statement on the Mecca agreement word for word. Neither Riyadh nor Ünlühisarcıklı will call the agreement an alliance: the Saudi statement denies any intention to build a military axis, and Ünlühisarcıklı calls it coordination rather than a mutual defence pact of NATO's kind. Erdoğan and Erhürman both want a Cyprus settlement, and the foreign ministry and Fidan both want Russia and Ukraine to leave merchant ships alone.

Where they split

Fidan and Ünlühisarcıklı describe the Mecca agreement's defence clause differently. Fidan calls it technically similar to NATO's Article 5; Ünlühisarcıklı says it is a framework for coordination and not a mutual defence pact comparable to NATO. On Iraq, Bayraktar treats the one-year transit deal as the step towards a long-term agreement, while Yıldız says the thing to count is the 15 percent stake and not the volumes promised. On Cyprus, Erdoğan wants recognition of sovereign equality before any initiative, while Erhürman wants weekly meetings with Christodoulides starting now.

What nobody is saying

Türkiye holds the only working oil route out of Iraq to the Mediterranean, in Al Jazeera's description, because the Strait of Hormuz is shut. If Hormuz reopens the northern route matters less, and the deal that carries it was signed for one year on 1 August 2026. Türkiye can bid for a role in southern Lebanon because resolution 2790 winds UNIFIL up and names no successor; the Secretary-General sent the Council his options on 1 June 2026, and none of the sources here reports what the Council then decided. None of those given a say here says what the Mecca agreement would cost its signatories: Fidan says a country under attack must ask for help and say what it needs, which leaves the size of the obligation to be settled case by case. Nobody says what Ankara does if the answers on the F-35, Cyprus and the customs union stay no.

Who says what

Hakan Fidan, Türkiye's minister of foreign affairs

Fidan wants the Mecca agreement to grow beyond its three signatories and expects Egypt to join once technical issues are settled. He says Iran is not the target of the alliance, and that no country which does not attack it is a target. On the Black Sea he says the strikes have moved from military ports and ships to commercial vessels without distinction, and that Ankara has proposed a moratorium to Russia and Ukraine.

”Our president's vision is for this initiative not to remain limited to three countries, but to grow and, if necessary, bring all countries under this umbrella”Our president's vision is for this initiative not to remain limited to three countries, but to grow and, if necessary, bring all countries under this umbrella
Source: Türkiye Today · Saturday, 8 August 2026 · Fidan spoke Turkish; the wording is the outlet's English rendering. He also said several other countries had expressed interest, and that joining requires the consent of the founding countries.
Government of Saudi Arabia, Institutional position, Riyadh

Riyadh says the Mecca agreement threatens no country in the region. Rayed Krimly, the deputy minister for public diplomacy, says it is not linked to nuclear ambitions or an arms race, but to building sustainable, self-reliant capabilities.

”The agreement does not represent any intention to build a military axis or a sectarian/religious bloc”The agreement does not represent any intention to build a military axis or a sectarian/religious bloc
Source: Al Jazeera · Friday, 7 August 2026 · The words are Rayed Krimly's, from a post on X.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Türkiye

Erdoğan wants Türkiye inside whatever is launched after UNIFIL and calls the force's departure an important development. He says Türkiye is ready to give all possible support to rebuilding southern Lebanon, where he puts the toll since Israel's attacks began on 2 March 2026 at more than 4,300 dead. On Cyprus he makes the sovereign equality of the Turkish Cypriots the condition for any initiative.

”After the withdrawal of the current international force, we as Türkiye want to take part in all initiatives to be launched to support security in the region and ensure Lebanon's sovereignty”After the withdrawal of the current international force, we as Türkiye want to take part in all initiatives to be launched to support security in the region and ensure Lebanon's sovereignty
Source: Türkiye Today · Thursday, 30 July 2026 · Said at a joint press conference with Lebanon's president Joseph Aoun at the presidential complex in Ankara. Erdoğan spoke Turkish; the wording quoted here is the outlet's English rendering. Photographs in the article are credited to the state news agency Anadolu and to the Turkish Presidency. The Cyprus position does not come from here but from the Cyprus Mail of 29 July, set out in the facts above.
Alparslan Bayraktar, Türkiye's minister of energy and natural resources

Bayraktar presents the one-year deal as an interim step: work continues towards a new long-term agreement for the pipeline, and the transit arrangement keeps the oil moving meanwhile. He says the arrangement holds a more strategic position given developments in global oil markets.

”we have implemented this transit arrangement covering a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels”we have implemented this transit arrangement covering a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels
Source: Al Jazeera · Saturday, 1 August 2026 · Written in a post on X after his meeting in Ankara with Iraq's oil minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair; the wording is Al Jazeera's English rendering.
Güney Yıldız, Analyst and writer on energy and geopolitics, Forbes

Yıldız argues that the equity, not the volume promises, is the real outcome. He tells readers to treat the talk of a million barrels a day as politics until the loadings prove otherwise. Fifteen percent buys Türkiye a seat under Iraqi title, not control of the fields.

Source: Forbes · Wednesday, 29 July 2026 · A signed analysis by a Forbes contributor, not a news report by the newsroom.
Donald Trump, President of the United States

Trump dismisses Israel's objections to an F-35 sale to Türkiye and says no foreign leader decides American arms export choices. He praises the Turkish military and said at July's NATO summit that he would consider Türkiye's request to rejoin the programme. He has announced no decision.

”Nobody tells me what we should be selling and not.”Nobody tells me what we should be selling and not.
Source: Turkish Minute · Tuesday, 28 July 2026 · Said to reporters aboard Air Force One the day before his White House meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu.
Tufan Erhürman, Turkish Cypriot leader

Erhürman wants the talks started now. He asks Cyprus's president, Nikos Christodoulides, to meet him once a week to finish what he calls the homework the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, set the two sides at the end of July: confidence-building measures, how the talks would run and what they would cover. He dismisses those on both sides who want a process rather than a result.

”We are ready within the framework of our people’s will for a solution, and we have clearly stated that we are ready.”We are ready within the framework of our people's will for a solution, and we have clearly stated that we are ready.
Source: Cyprus Mail · Monday, 3 August 2026 · Said on 3 August 2026 after the tripartite meeting held on the island by UN Secretary-General António Guterres; Erhürman spoke Turkish and the wording is the outlet's English rendering.
Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Institutional position, Ankara

The ministry said it was concerned that Russia's war against Ukraine is spreading further across the Black Sea, with negative repercussions on several fronts, including for food security. It names nobody as responsible for the attacks.

”We therefore reiterate our call to all relevant actors, particularly the warring parties, to urgently implement concrete measures to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea”We therefore reiterate our call to all relevant actors, particularly the warring parties, to urgently implement concrete measures to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea
Source: The Moscow Times · Tuesday, 4 August 2026 · The ministry published these words itself, as statement No: 151 of 4 August 2026 on mfa.gov.tr. The wording there is word for word the version carried by The Moscow Times and quoted here. The outlet is an independent Russian newsroom in exile, designated an "undesirable organisation" by Russia's Prosecutor General, and it is also the source for the details about the ships and their crews.
Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, Regional director for Türkiye, German Marshall Fund of the United States

Ünlühisarcıklı reads the agreement as a sign of a growing appetite for regional strategic autonomy at a time when confidence in the existing security order has eroded. He says the three bring different strengths: Turkish defence-industrial capability, Saudi financial muscle and influence, and Pakistan's military experience and strategic deterrent. He does not accept the label of a mutual defence pact comparable to NATO.

”It should be noted that this is a framework for closer strategic, military, and defence-industrial coordination among three influential regional powers and not a mutual defence pact that can be compared to NATO”It should be noted that this is a framework for closer strategic, military, and defence-industrial coordination among three influential regional powers and not a mutual defence pact that can be compared to NATO
Source: Al Jazeera · Friday, 7 August 2026 · The spelling of the name is the one the German Marshall Fund uses on its own experts page.

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