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Tunisia · Europe · Geopolitics: the daily brief
Background

Turkish foreign policy

Three separate crises have given Türkiye something to offer, and so far Ankara has signed a one-year oil transit deal and a 15 percent stake in Kirkuk, while the F-35, Cyprus and the customs union remain other people's decisions.

Turkish foreign policy

Three crises have converged on Türkiye at once. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent Iraq looking for other export routes, and the only working line to the Mediterranean ends at the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The UN force in southern Lebanon is winding up under a Security Council decision, and what secures the south is open. Russia's war has reached merchant shipping in the Black Sea, where Turkish-owned ships are being hit. Ankara has signed in Iraq, offered in Lebanon, appealed in the Black Sea.

Ankara's own list of demands is older than any of these openings. Türkiye wants back into the F-35 programme, from which it was removed in 2019 after buying Russian S-400 air defences, and says it put about 1.4 billion dollars in. It wants a place in whatever replaces UNIFIL. It wants any Cyprus settlement to recognise what it calls the sovereign equality of the Turkish Cypriots. And it wants the EU customs union modernised, a file that has not moved.

What has actually been signed is short-dated. The 1973 agreement governing the pipeline expired on 27 July, on a termination a Turkish presidential decision had set back in July 2025. On 1 August the state firm Botas signed a one-year transit arrangement with Iraq's Somo and NOC; the framework deal covering oil, electricity and water is still to be negotiated. The same week Turkish Petroleum agreed terms to take 15 percent of BP's Kirkuk vehicle, subject to completion, and not the operatorship.

On the other asks, the decision belongs to someone else. Trump said after July's NATO summit that he would consider Türkiye's request to rejoin the F-35 programme, and has announced no decision. Netanyahu says he opposes the sale, arguing it would undermine Israel's qualitative military edge. What replaces UNIFIL is for the Security Council, which set the end date and asked the Secretary-General for options. Fidan blames the Greek Cypriot side for the customs union blockage and says the EU must fix its own unanimity rule.

In the Black Sea, Ankara's role so far has been to appeal to both sides. After drones hit the Turkish-owned cargo ships Yasar and Nadezhda off Novorossiysk on 3 August, the foreign ministry called on the warring parties to make navigation safe and named neither of them. Each arrangement carries an end date. UNIFIL's mandate ends on 31 December 2026 with no agreed successor, and the transit deal runs out a year after signature.

”After the withdrawal of the current international force, we as Türkiye want to take part in all initiatives to be launched to support security in the region and ensure Lebanon's sovereignty”
Recep Tayyip ErdoğanPresident of Türkiye

The numbers

UNIFIL's end date, set by the Security Council
Resolution 2790, adopted on 28 August 2025, extended UNIFIL's mandate for a final time until 31 December 2026 and set out the functions the force may perform during the drawdown and withdrawal. It also asked the UN Secretary-General to explore, by 1 June 2026, options for the future implementation of resolution 1701 after UNIFIL has withdrawn.
Security Council Report
The Kirkuk to Ceyhan pipeline deal
A one-year transit deal signed on Saturday 1 August 2026 between Türkiye's state firm Botas and Iraq's state oil companies Somo and NOC. Energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar described it as an arrangement covering a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels. The line has a maximum capacity of about 1.5 million barrels a day and currently carries about 170,000 barrels a day, according to Turkish data cited by Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera
The Turkish stake in Kirkuk
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı, TPAO, is to acquire 15 percent of BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited, the vehicle through which BP supports the redevelopment of the Kirkuk fields. After completion the holdings are BP 43 percent, ConocoPhillips 42 percent and TPAO 15 percent. The fields are operated by North Oil Company and North Gas Company.
Iraq Business News
Why Iraq needs the northern route
Iraqi oil exports collapsed by more than 80 percent in the weeks after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February 2026, and monthly oil revenues fell from around 6 billion dollars to under 2 billion. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced Baghdad to look for other export routes. The figures are as reported by Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera
What exclusion from the F-35 cost
Türkiye was removed from the multinational F-35 programme in 2019 after acquiring the Russian S-400 air defence system, and Washington later imposed sanctions on its defence procurement agency under the CAATSA act. Ankara says it invested roughly 1.4 billion dollars in the programme before its removal, and Turkish officials have repeatedly called for reinstatement.
Turkish Minute
Ankara's condition on Cyprus
Speaking after a cabinet meeting in Ankara on 29 July 2026, President Erdoğan restated that any future negotiation on Cyprus must recognise what Ankara describes as the sovereign equality of the Turkish Cypriots: "No initiative that ignores the sovereign equality, rights and legitimate interests of Turkish Cypriots in the eastern Mediterranean can be crowned with success." He described Türkiye's role on the island as a matter of national security. The remarks came hours after the UN Secretary-General ended talks with both sides on the island.
Cyprus Mail
The drone attacks on Turkish-owned ships
The cargo ships Yasar and Nadezhda were attacked after leaving Novorossiysk on the evening of Monday 3 August 2026. The Nadezhda was bound for Samsun and was hit about 20 nautical miles off Novorossiysk, according to the Turkish Maritime Authority. All 22 crew were brought to safety in Russia, three of them seriously injured. The ships fly the flags of Panama and Cameroon respectively but are owned by Turkish companies. Ukrainian officials have not commented on the attacks.
The Moscow Times
The EU customs union is stalled
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in a CNN Turk interview published on 3 July 2026 that the customs union must be modernised and that both sides agree on that, but that there is "an issue causing a blockage: the position taken by the Greek Cypriot side". He said Türkiye has no problem of intention or political will, and that the EU needs to resolve issues related to decision-making by unanimity within the bloc.
Cyprus Mail

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

Nobody quoted disputes that Türkiye is now a party to each of these files. Bayraktar and Yıldız both treat the Iraq package as real business: the line is flowing, TPAO takes 15 percent of BP's Kirkuk vehicle, and a long-term agreement is still to come. Iraq's prime minister says the framework still to be negotiated covers oil, electricity and water. Erdoğan and Erhürman both say they want a Cyprus settlement. Nobody claims that anything Ankara has asked for has already been granted.

Where they split

They split on what Türkiye has actually secured. Bayraktar calls the transit deal a step towards a long-term agreement. Yıldız says the equity should be scored as real and the volume promises as politics until the loadings prove otherwise. On Cyprus, Erdoğan makes recognition of sovereign equality the precondition for any initiative, while Erhürman wants weekly meetings and a result, and dismisses those who prefer a process. On the F-35, Trump says nobody tells him what to sell, while Netanyahu says a sale would undermine Israel's military edge. In the Black Sea the ministry addressed both belligerents at once and blamed neither.

What nobody is saying

Nobody quoted says that the leverage is borrowed. Türkiye holds the only working oil route to the Mediterranean, in Al Jazeera's description, because the Strait of Hormuz is shut. It is a candidate for southern Lebanon because the Security Council decided in August 2025 to wind UNIFIL up and agreed no successor. Erdoğan says Israel's attacks since 2 March 2026 have devastated the south, and reconstruction is what Türkiye has offered there. It is talking to both belligerents in the Black Sea because their war has reached shipping. If Hormuz reopens the northern route matters less, and that is roughly when the transit deal expires. Nor does anyone say what Ankara does if the answers stay no.

Who says what

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Türkiye

Erdoğan wants Türkiye inside whatever is launched after UNIFIL and calls the force's departure an important development. He also says Türkiye is ready to give all possible support to rebuilding southern Lebanon. On Cyprus he makes the sovereign equality of the Turkish Cypriots the condition for any initiative.

”After the withdrawal of the current international force, we as Türkiye want to take part in all initiatives to be launched to support security in the region and ensure Lebanon's sovereignty”After the withdrawal of the current international force, we as Türkiye want to take part in all initiatives to be launched to support security in the region and ensure Lebanon's sovereignty
Source: Türkiye Today · Thursday, 30 July 2026 · Said at a joint press conference with Lebanon's president Joseph Aoun at the presidential complex in Ankara. Erdoğan spoke Turkish; the wording quoted here is the outlet's English rendering. Photographs in the article are credited to the state news agency Anadolu and to the Turkish Presidency. The Cyprus position does not come from here but from the Cyprus Mail of 29 July, set out in the facts above.
Alparslan Bayraktar, Türkiye's minister of energy and natural resources

Bayraktar presents the one-year deal as an interim step: work continues towards a new long-term agreement for the pipeline, and the transit arrangement keeps the oil moving meanwhile. He says the arrangement holds a more strategic position given developments in global oil markets.

”we have implemented this transit arrangement covering a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels”we have implemented this transit arrangement covering a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels
Source: Al Jazeera · Saturday, 1 August 2026 · Written in a post on X after his meeting in Ankara with Iraq's oil minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair; the wording is Al Jazeera's English rendering.
Güney Yıldız, Analyst and writer on energy and geopolitics, Forbes

Yıldız argues that the equity, not the volume promises, is the real outcome. Turkish coverage has Erdoğan relaying the Iraqi prime minister's line that Iraq can supply a million barrels a day, and Yıldız advises treating that figure as politics until the loadings say otherwise. Fifteen percent buys Türkiye a seat under Iraqi title, not control of the fields.

”Fifteen percent is not control. It is incorporation.”Fifteen percent is not control. It is incorporation.
Source: Forbes · Wednesday, 29 July 2026 · A signed analysis by a Forbes contributor, not a news report by the newsroom.
Donald Trump, President of the United States

Trump dismisses Israel's objections to an F-35 sale to Türkiye and says no foreign leader decides American arms export choices. He praises the Turkish military and, after July's NATO summit, said he would consider Türkiye's request to rejoin the programme. He has announced no decision.

”Nobody tells me what we should be selling and not.”Nobody tells me what we should be selling and not.
Source: Turkish Minute · Tuesday, 28 July 2026 · Said to reporters aboard Air Force One the day before his White House meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu.
Tufan Erhürman, Turkish Cypriot leader

Erhürman wants the talks started now. He asks for weekly meetings with Nikos Christodoulides to work through the tasks Guterres left behind, and dismisses those who want a process rather than a result.

”We are ready within the framework of our people’s will for a solution, and we have clearly stated that we are ready.”We are ready within the framework of our people's will for a solution, and we have clearly stated that we are ready.
Source: Cyprus Mail · Monday, 3 August 2026 · Said on 3 August 2026 after the tripartite meeting held on the island by UN Secretary-General António Guterres; Erhürman spoke Turkish and the wording is the outlet's English rendering.
Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Institutional position, Ankara

The ministry said it was concerned that Russia's war against Ukraine is spreading further across the Black Sea, with negative repercussions on several fronts, including for food security. Its call is addressed to all relevant actors and particularly the warring parties. It names nobody as responsible for the attacks.

”We therefore reiterate our call to all relevant actors, particularly the warring parties, to urgently implement concrete measures to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea”We therefore reiterate our call to all relevant actors, particularly the warring parties, to urgently implement concrete measures to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea
Source: The Moscow Times · Tuesday, 4 August 2026 · The ministry published these words itself, as statement No: 151 of 4 August 2026 on mfa.gov.tr. The wording there is word for word the version carried by The Moscow Times and quoted here. The outlet is an independent Russian newsroom in exile, designated an "undesirable organisation" by Russia's Prosecutor General, and it is also the source for the details about the ships and their crews.

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