··

God Morgon

Geopolitics · Europe · Sweden · Türkiye · the economy
Background

Turkish foreign policy

Only one of the three crises that reached Türkiye this year gave it something other governments need, and that is the route out of Iraq. The second thing Ankara has to offer is a defence pact it cannot yet deliver: the Mecca agreement needs ratification by its own parliament and then a separate mandate before a single soldier moves. What Ankara wants in return, the F-35, Cyprus and the customs union, is decided by others.

On 5 October Türkiye and Pakistan agreed to send forces to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca joint defence agreement. No Turkish troops can go until parliament ratifies the agreement and a separate mandate is issued; the foreign affairs committee approved the text on 27 October.
Turkish foreign policy

Three crises reached Türkiye this year, and they did not cut the same way. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent Iraq looking for other export routes, and Iraq's only working line to the Mediterranean ends at Ceyhan. Security Council resolution 2790 gave the UN force in southern Lebanon a final mandate, to 31 December 2026, and Ankara wants a place in what replaces it. Russia's war has reached merchant shipping in the Black Sea, where Turkish ships are being hit. One crisis is leverage; two are exposure.

The Mecca agreement, signed on 7 August, treats an armed attack on any one of Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as an attack on all three. On 5 October, after Houthi attacks on the kingdom, the three met in Riyadh and agreed to trigger collective deterrence; Türkiye and Pakistan agreed to send forces. Parliament's foreign affairs committee approved the text on 27 October. Ratification by the general assembly had not followed by 30 October, and the defence ministry says a deployment also needs a separate mandate to send troops abroad.

The Iraqi route bought Türkiye a one-year contract and a minority stake. The decades-old pipeline agreement lapsed on 27 July, and on 1 August the state firm Botas signed a one-year transit deal with Iraq's Somo and NOC. Its stated daily capacity is 750,000 barrels; Al Jazeera put actual flows at about 170,000. The same week, TPAO agreed terms to buy 15 percent of BP's Kirkuk company. The fields are run by Iraq's North Oil Company, and both governments describe talks on a longer-term deal as continuing.

In the Black Sea Türkiye is the victim, not the broker. Four Turkish ships were hit between 22 July and early August, and one crew member died on the Reyhan Sarı. The Turkish Chamber of Shipping counts more than 200 civilian and commercial vessels attacked since February 2022, most this year. On 7 October Bulgaria's president, Iliana Iotova, called for a moratorium covering all six littoral states, and defence minister Yaşar Güler met his Bulgarian and Romanian counterparts in Sofia on 28 October.

Ankara's own list is older than those crises, and every item is somebody else's to grant. Washington expelled Türkiye from the F-35 programme in 2019 over its Russian S-400s, and Trump said in July only that he would consider taking it back. In mid-October trade minister Ömer Bolat said the EU Council had still not authorised customs union talks. Cyprus's president, Nikos Christodoulides, says progress with the EU waits on the Cyprus talks resuming. Only Libya gave Ankara anything: its eastern parliament ratified the 2019 maritime agreement on 20 October.

”Any progress in EU-Turkey relations depends on the resumption of talks on the basis of the agreed framework”
Nikos ChristodoulidesPresident of Cyprus

The numbers

What the Mecca agreement says
The joint statement from the joint defence summit in Mecca on 7 August 2026 says the agreement is meant to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and that an armed attack on any one of the three states is to be regarded as an attack on them all. It also provides for closer defence cooperation between the three states in all its aspects.
Al Jazeera
How the Mecca agreement would work, and who else might join
Hakan Fidan described the clause as technically similar to NATO's Article 5, but the response would depend on the circumstances: a country under attack would have to request assistance and specify what kind of support it needed, from intelligence and logistics to ammunition or the deployment of military units. The three will set up political and military committees of foreign ministers, defence ministers and military chiefs, and a secretariat in Saudi Arabia. Fidan said preparations had run for nearly two years and eight months, and that he expected Egypt, which he called a natural partner, to join once outstanding technical issues were resolved.
Al Jazeera
UNIFIL's end date, set by the Security Council
31 Dec 2026
Resolution 2790, adopted on 28 August 2025, extended UNIFIL's mandate for a final time until 31 December 2026 and set out the functions the force may perform during the drawdown and withdrawal. It also asked the UN Secretary-General to explore, by 1 June 2026, options for the future implementation of resolution 1701 after UNIFIL has withdrawn. Security Council Report lists that letter, S/2026/453, as sent on 1 June 2026.
Security Council Report
The Kirkuk to Ceyhan pipeline deal
750,000 b/d
A one-year transit deal signed on Saturday 1 August 2026 between Türkiye's state firm Botas and Iraq's state oil companies Somo and NOC. Energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar described it as an arrangement covering a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels. The line has a maximum capacity of about 1.5 million barrels a day and currently carries about 170,000 barrels a day, according to Turkish data cited by Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera
The Turkish stake in Kirkuk
TPAO, the Turkish state oil company Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı, is to acquire 15 percent of BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited, the vehicle through which BP supports the redevelopment of the Kirkuk fields. After completion the holdings are BP 43 percent, ConocoPhillips 42 percent and TPAO 15 percent. The fields are operated by North Oil Company and North Gas Company.
Iraq Business News
Why Iraq needs the northern route
Iraqi oil exports collapsed by more than 80 percent by volume in the weeks after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February 2026. On a separate measure, monthly oil revenues fell from around 6 billion dollars to under 2 billion. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced Baghdad to look for other export routes. The figures are as reported by Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera
What exclusion from the F-35 cost
Türkiye was removed from the multinational F-35 programme in 2019 after acquiring the Russian S-400 air defence system, and Washington later imposed sanctions on its defence procurement agency under the CAATSA act. Ankara says it invested roughly 1.4 billion dollars in the programme before its removal, and Turkish officials have repeatedly called for reinstatement.
Turkish Minute
Ankara's condition on Cyprus
Speaking after a cabinet meeting in Ankara on 29 July 2026, President Erdoğan restated that any future negotiation on Cyprus must recognise what Ankara describes as the sovereign equality of the Turkish Cypriots: "No initiative that ignores the sovereign equality, rights and legitimate interests of Turkish Cypriots in the eastern Mediterranean can be crowned with success." He described Türkiye's role on the island as a matter of national security. The remarks came hours after the UN Secretary-General ended talks with both sides on the island.
Cyprus Mail
The drone attacks on Turkish-owned ships
The cargo ships Yasar and Nadezhda were attacked after leaving Novorossiysk on the evening of Monday 3 August 2026. The Nadezhda was bound for Samsun and was hit about 20 nautical miles off Novorossiysk, according to the Turkish Maritime Authority. All 22 crew were brought to safety in Russia, three of them seriously injured. The ships fly the flags of Panama and Cameroon respectively but are owned by Turkish companies. Ukrainian officials had not commented when The Moscow Times reported this on 4 August 2026.
The Moscow Times
Turkish ships hit in the Black Sea since 22 July
A drone struck the accommodation area of the Turkish-flagged dry cargo ship Güllük as it sailed toward the Russian port of Taman. No crew member was killed or injured, and the vessel continued toward Istanbul for a technical inspection. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian authorities commented, and responsibility remained unclear. On 22 July the Turkish-flagged dry cargo ship Reyhan Sarı was hit while carrying coal from Taman to Trabzon; one crew member was killed and three others injured, according to Turkish maritime reports.
Hürriyet Daily News
The Mecca agreement invoked, 5 October 2026
At an emergency meeting in Riyadh, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed to trigger collective deterrence measures in response to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, with Türkiye and Pakistan agreeing to deploy forces. No troop numbers, force types or deployment dates were reported
Al Jazeera
Russia's conditions on the S-400s
Sergey Lavrov said any resale needs Russian approval and the recipient should act responsibly and have friendly relations with the Russian Federation, so that the systems are not delivered somewhere else. Media outlets have reported that Türkiye was considering a resale to a third country, reportedly the United Arab Emirates
Daily Sabah
Parliament's committee approves the Mecca pact, 27 October 2026
The parliament's foreign affairs committee approved the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on 27 October 2026, with the votes of the governing AKP and MHP. Deputy Foreign Minister Levent Gümrükçü told the committee the agreement is purely defensive and targets no country: "This agreement is not an alternative to NATO but complementary to it." Deputies from the New Party, DEM and the Good Party questioned the alliance's motives while Saudi Arabia was in armed conflict with the Houthis, and the New Party's Utku Çakırözer said the main opposition would vote against it. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu had said on 24 October that his CHP would vote in favour. Hürriyet Daily News reports the text is expected at the general assembly in the first week of November.
Hürriyet Daily News
What any deployment to Saudi Arabia requires
Türkiye's defence ministry said on 15 October 2026 that any deployment of Turkish troops or military capabilities to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca agreement would be carried out in accordance with the constitution and the relevant legislation: the agreement must be approved by parliament, and the authorisation procedures for sending the armed forces abroad must also be completed. The scope of any Turkish contribution would depend on Saudi Arabia's needs and requests and on operational requirements. At the same briefing the ministry confirmed that talks with Washington continue over the delivery of six F-35 jets built for Türkiye, and repeated Ankara's demand that the CAATSA sanctions imposed in 2020 be lifted.
Daily Sabah
Libya ratifies the 2019 maritime agreement
Libya's eastern-based House of Representatives voted unanimously on Tuesday 20 October 2026 to approve the 2019 memorandum of understanding with Türkiye on the delimitation of maritime jurisdiction in the Mediterranean, which it had long opposed. It also repealed resolution 1 of 2020, which had rejected ratification of the two memorandums signed with Türkiye, and resolution 6 of 2020, which had called for severing political relations with Ankara. The vote strengthens the legal standing of the agreement underpinning Turkish claims in the eastern Mediterranean.
Türkiye Today
The customs union: where it stood in mid-October
$233bn in 2025
Trade minister Ömer Bolat, in Brussels for the Türkiye-EU Business Summit of 13 October 2026, said talks were advancing on e-commerce, public procurement, investment and agriculture, but that the EU Council had yet to authorise formal negotiations to modernise the customs union, citing the stance of some member states: "We are moving forward issue by issue." He put bilateral trade at 233 billion dollars in 2025, including 62 billion in automotive trade, and asked for Türkiye to be included in the bloc's proposed industrial accelerator act rather than excluded by its made-in-EU requirements.
Hürriyet Daily News
Ships attacked in the Black Sea since 2022
more than 200
More than 200 civilian and commercial vessels have come under attack in the Black Sea since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the vast majority of them this year, according to the Turkish Chamber of Shipping. Defence minister Yaşar Güler met his Bulgarian and Romanian counterparts, and the three countries' chiefs of general staff, in Sofia on 28 October 2026. Bulgaria's president Iliana Iotova had proposed on 7 October that all six littoral states, Bulgaria, Türkiye, Romania, Ukraine, Russia and Georgia, agree a moratorium on hostilities in the Black Sea.
Hürriyet Daily News

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

Al Jazeera and the Saudi Press Agency carry the Mecca joint statement word for word. Neither Riyadh nor Ünlühisarcıklı will describe the agreement as a bloc: the Saudi statement denies any intention to build a military axis, and Ünlühisarcıklı calls it coordination rather than a mutual defence pact of NATO's kind. The foreign ministry and Fidan both want Russia and Ukraine to leave merchant ships alone. On ratification the governing parties and Kılıçdaroğlu's CHP agree: both say they will vote the agreement through.

Where they split

Fidan and Ünlühisarcıklı describe the Mecca agreement's defence clause differently. Fidan calls it technically similar to NATO's Article 5; Ünlühisarcıklı says it is a framework for coordination and not a mutual defence pact comparable to NATO. On Iraq, Bayraktar treats the one-year transit deal as the step towards a long-term agreement, while Yıldız says the thing to count is the 15 percent stake and not the volumes promised. The opposition is not of one mind on ratification: Kılıçdaroğlu says the CHP will vote in favour, while the New Party's Utku Çakırözer told the committee on 27 October that the main opposition would vote against. Christodoulides and Erdoğan turn the same condition against each other: Christodoulides says progress between the EU and Türkiye requires the Cyprus talks to resume first, while Erdoğan requires recognition of Turkish Cypriot sovereign equality before any initiative is taken.

What nobody is saying

Türkiye holds what Al Jazeera called Iraq's only working oil route to the Mediterranean, and that position rests on the Gulf route staying disrupted. None of the sources here says where the Strait of Hormuz stood in late October, and the transit deal that carries the northern route runs one year from 1 August 2026. Türkiye can bid for a role in southern Lebanon because resolution 2790 winds UNIFIL up and names no successor; the Secretary-General sent the Council his options on 1 June 2026, and none of the sources here reports what the Council then decided. None of those given a say here says what the Mecca agreement would cost its signatories: Fidan says a country under attack must ask for help and say what it needs, which leaves the size of the obligation to be settled case by case. Nobody says what Ankara does if the answers on the F-35, Cyprus and the customs union stay no. Christodoulides said on 16 October that a high-level EU-Türkiye meeting had been arranged for October; by 30 October no source here reported that it had been held.

Who says what

Hakan Fidan, Türkiye's minister of foreign affairs

Fidan wants the Mecca agreement to grow beyond its three signatories and expects Egypt to join once technical issues are settled. He says Iran is not the target of the alliance, and that no country which does not attack it is a target. On the Black Sea he says the strikes have moved from military ports and ships to commercial vessels without distinction, and that Ankara has proposed a moratorium to Russia and Ukraine.

”Our president's vision is for this initiative not to remain limited to three countries, but to grow and, if necessary, bring all countries under this umbrella”Our president's vision is for this initiative not to remain limited to three countries, but to grow and, if necessary, bring all countries under this umbrella
Source: Türkiye Today · Saturday, 8 August 2026 · Fidan spoke Turkish; the wording is the outlet's English rendering. He also said several other countries had expressed interest, and that joining requires the consent of the founding countries.
Government of Saudi Arabia, Institutional position, Riyadh

Riyadh says the Mecca agreement threatens no country in the region. Rayed Krimly, the deputy minister for public diplomacy, says it is not linked to nuclear ambitions or an arms race, but to building sustainable, self-reliant capabilities.

”The agreement does not represent any intention to build a military axis or a sectarian/religious bloc”The agreement does not represent any intention to build a military axis or a sectarian/religious bloc
Source: Al Jazeera · Friday, 7 August 2026 · The words are Rayed Krimly's, from a post on X.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Türkiye

Erdoğan wants Türkiye inside whatever is launched after UNIFIL and calls the force's departure an important development. He says Türkiye is ready to give all possible support to rebuilding southern Lebanon. On Cyprus he makes the sovereign equality of the Turkish Cypriots the condition for any initiative.

”After the withdrawal of the current international force, we as Türkiye want to take part in all initiatives to be launched to support security in the region and ensure Lebanon's sovereignty”After the withdrawal of the current international force, we as Türkiye want to take part in all initiatives to be launched to support security in the region and ensure Lebanon's sovereignty
Source: Türkiye Today · Thursday, 30 July 2026 · Said at a joint press conference with Lebanon's president Joseph Aoun at the presidential complex in Ankara. Erdoğan spoke Turkish; the wording quoted here is the outlet's English rendering. Photographs in the article are credited to the state news agency Anadolu and to the Turkish Presidency. The Cyprus position does not come from here but from the Cyprus Mail of 29 July, set out in the facts above.
Alparslan Bayraktar, Türkiye's minister of energy and natural resources

Bayraktar presents the one-year deal as an interim step: work continues towards a new long-term agreement for the pipeline, and the transit arrangement keeps the oil moving meanwhile. He says the arrangement holds a more strategic position given developments in global oil markets.

”we have implemented this transit arrangement covering a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels”we have implemented this transit arrangement covering a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels
Source: Al Jazeera · Saturday, 1 August 2026 · Written in a post on X after his meeting in Ankara with Iraq's oil minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair; the wording is Al Jazeera's English rendering.
Güney Yıldız, Analyst and writer on energy and geopolitics, Forbes

Yıldız argues that the equity, not the volume promises, is the real outcome. He tells readers to treat the talk of a million barrels a day as politics until the loadings prove otherwise. 15 percent buys Türkiye a seat under Iraqi title, not control of the fields.

Source: Forbes · Wednesday, 29 July 2026 · A signed analysis by a Forbes contributor, not a news report by the newsroom.
Donald Trump, President of the United States

Trump dismisses Israel's objections to an F-35 sale to Türkiye and says no foreign leader decides American arms export choices. He praises the Turkish military and said at July's NATO summit that he would consider Türkiye's request to rejoin the programme. He has announced no decision.

”Nobody tells me what we should be selling and not.”Nobody tells me what we should be selling and not.
Source: Turkish Minute · Tuesday, 28 July 2026 · Said to reporters aboard Air Force One the day before his White House meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu.
Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Institutional position, Ankara

The ministry said it was concerned that Russia's war against Ukraine is spreading further across the Black Sea, with negative repercussions on several fronts, including for food security. It names nobody as responsible for the attacks.

”We therefore reiterate our call to all relevant actors, particularly the warring parties, to urgently implement concrete measures to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea”We therefore reiterate our call to all relevant actors, particularly the warring parties, to urgently implement concrete measures to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea
Source: The Moscow Times · Tuesday, 4 August 2026 · The ministry published these words itself, as statement No: 151 of 4 August 2026 on mfa.gov.tr. The wording there is word for word the version carried by The Moscow Times and quoted here. The outlet is an independent Russian newsroom in exile, designated an "undesirable organisation" by Russia's Prosecutor General, and it is also the source for the details about the ships and their crews.
Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, Regional director for Türkiye, German Marshall Fund of the United States

Ünlühisarcıklı reads the agreement as a sign of a growing appetite for regional strategic autonomy at a time when confidence in the existing security order has eroded. He says the three bring different strengths: Turkish defence-industrial capability, Saudi financial muscle and influence, and Pakistan's military experience and strategic deterrent. He does not accept the label of a mutual defence pact comparable to NATO.

”It should be noted that this is a framework for closer strategic, military, and defence-industrial coordination among three influential regional powers and not a mutual defence pact that can be compared to NATO”It should be noted that this is a framework for closer strategic, military, and defence-industrial coordination among three influential regional powers and not a mutual defence pact that can be compared to NATO
Source: Al Jazeera · Friday, 7 August 2026 · The spelling of the name is the one the German Marshall Fund uses on its own experts page.
Nikos Christodoulides, President of Cyprus

Christodoulides names the price of what Ankara wants from the EU: progress in EU-Türkiye relations depends on Cyprus talks resuming within the agreed framework. He said a high-level EU-Türkiye meeting was being arranged for October at the UN Secretary-General's own request, to explore how the conditions for resuming negotiations might be created. He says the political will on his own side is a given and that the EU can play a leading role.

”Any progress in EU-Turkey relations depends on the resumption of talks on the basis of the agreed framework”Any progress in EU-Turkey relations depends on the resumption of talks on the basis of the agreed framework
Source: Euronews · Friday, 16 October 2026 · Said to journalists on Friday 16 October 2026. Euronews publishes the words in English and writes EU-Turkey rather than Türkiye; the wording is the outlet's.
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Leader of the opposition CHP

Kılıçdaroğlu is letting the Mecca agreement through. His first thought was whether it could pave the way for a future conflict with Iran, but Iran later said the agreement was appropriate, and he believes, while saying he has no direct information, that Türkiye assured Tehran it intends no conflict. His party keeps its criticisms and votes yes anyway.

”We have our criticisms, but we will vote in favor of the Mecca agreement”We have our criticisms, but we will vote in favor of the Mecca agreement
Source: Hürriyet Daily News · Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Said to reporters during a visit to Gaziantep on 24 October 2026 and published by Hürriyet Daily News the next day. Kılıçdaroğlu spoke Turkish and the wording is the outlet's English rendering, which spells favor the American way.

Our coverage