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God Morgon

Tunisia · Europe · Geopolitics: the daily brief
Background

The US and Iran at war

The war began on 28 February 2026 with American and Israeli strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader, and the deals since have stopped the shooting without settling the two questions the war is about: the nuclear programme and the Strait of Hormuz.

The US and Iran at war

The United States and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February 2026. Trump announced "major combat operations" that night and said the aim was to ensure Iran never obtained a nuclear weapon. He told Iranians to take over their government when the bombing ended. Washington had been in talks with Tehran about the programme before the strikes, and Iran denied it was building a weapon. The first day's strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. On 8 March the clerical body that picks Iran's highest authority named his son Mojtaba his successor.

Iran did not keep its answer inside its own borders. It fired missiles and drones at Israel and at American forces in Jordan, and hit Kuwait and Bahrain. Since 28 February it has controlled navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, requiring permission and transit fees. Washington blockaded Iran's southern ports, and the fighting now reaches Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. The UN office OCHA, citing the WHO, counted more than 3,400 civilians killed and more than 33,000 injured in Iran between 28 February and 9 June. That count stops there.

Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in early April and extended it on 21 April. A ceasefire was still in effect through June, OCHA reports, though its account and CNN's differ on which agreement was holding. On 17 June the United States released the fourteen points of the Pakistan-brokered Islamabad Memorandum. The text declares the war over on all fronts and gives sixty days to reach a final deal, extendable by consent. It also winds up the American blockade within thirty days and promises at least $300bn for Iranian reconstruction.

What the text did not do was settle either question the war is about in full. The strait's future administration was left for Iran and Oman to define with their neighbours. On the enriched uranium it fixed only a minimum: down-blending on site under IAEA supervision, with the disposal method itself deferred. From 19 June Iran designated a single lane as the only safe passage and fired on ships using the others. Fighting resumed on 8 July, and on 18 July Iran said it was suspending its commitments.

What is contested now is whether anyone is negotiating at all. Trump says talks are running at Iran's request, backed by Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar, and on that basis he called off a planned large attack on 1 August. Iran's foreign ministry says it is dealing with Oman and other regional states, not with Washington. The blockade stays as leverage, and the nuclear programme Trump gave as his reason in February is still to be negotiated.

”I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL”
Donald TrumpPresident of the United States

The numbers

The war's first day
The United States began "major combat operations" in Iran on the night of 28 February 2026. In the same statement Trump told Iranians: "When we are finished, take over your government."
A new supreme leader
Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei was chosen as Iran's new supreme leader on 8 March 2026, eight days after his father was killed, the Guardian reports, in a US and Israeli strike on Tehran on the first day of the war.
Civilian deaths in Iran
The UN humanitarian office OCHA reports more than 3,400 civilians killed and more than 33,000 injured for the period 28 February to 9 June 2026, citing a WHO situation report of 11 June. The update carries no later figure, so it does not cover the July fighting.
What the war has cost the US
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth told the Senate Appropriations Committee on 21 July 2026 that the war had cost about $37.5bn, a figure he said takes in costs running to the end of the fiscal year on 30 September. A Pentagon official gave about $29bn in mid-May. Sources tell CBS the real cost is much higher.
What the June deal actually said
The Islamabad Memorandum's fourteen points, released by the United States on 17 June 2026, allow a maximum of 60 days to reach a final deal, extendable by mutual consent, and end the American naval blockade within 30 days. On Iran's enriched uranium the text fixes only a minimum, down-blending on site under IAEA supervision; the rest is left to later negotiations.
Four to five weeks
Trump said in the war's early days that it would last four to five weeks, while warning it could take longer. By 30 July 2026 the war was in its fifth month.
When Iran froze the deal
On 18 July 2026 Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said, according to the Tasnim news agency, that Iran was suspending implementation of its commitments under the Islamabad Memorandum because the United States had breached its own.
Ten embassies on one day
On 1 August 2026 the US missions in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates issued a joint alert telling Americans to consider leaving the region.

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

Neither side says it wants the war to go on, and both have kept the same channels open: Pakistan, which brokered the June memorandum, and Oman, which handles the strait. Saudi Arabia's defence minister told Trump and Vice-President Vance, according to AP, that the kingdom wants de-escalation and wants Washington and Tehran back at the table. The Pentagon's own cost figure rose from about $29bn in mid-May to $37.5bn on 21 July.

Where they split

The sequence, and whether talks exist at all. Washington wants the strait opened and the nuclear threat removed before the blockade lifts; Tehran says nothing moves while the siege continues. Trump says Iran asked for talks, backed by Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar. Iran's foreign ministry says on the same day that it is dealing only with Oman and other regional states.

What nobody is saying

What either side would accept as an ending. The war opened with a call on Iranians to overthrow their own government, but the June text runs the other way: in it both sides promise not to interfere in each other's internal affairs. And the fourteen points mention neither Iran's missile programme nor the allied militias in Iraq and Yemen, which are exactly what make the war regional. Lebanon is the only front the text names.

Who says what

Donald Trump, President of the United States

Called off a planned large attack on 1 August, saying the outlines of a deal were agreed. Demands the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran's nuclear threat, and keeps the blockade in place until a deal is reached.

”I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL”I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL
Rafael Grossi, head of the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA

The one voice here that tests the war's stated reason. Told CNN days after the opening strikes that Iran was not days or weeks from a nuclear weapon. He named serious problems at the same time: an unjustified build-up of almost military-grade material, and a lack of transparency in inspections. CNN set the remarks out again in its live coverage of 2 and 3 August.

”we never had information indicating that there was a structured systematic program to build or to construct a nuclear weapon”we never had information indicating that there was a structured systematic program to build or to construct a nuclear weapon
Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for Iran's foreign ministry

Denies that Iran is negotiating directly with the United States. Tehran is talking to Oman and to states inside and outside the region, and nothing moves while the maritime siege continues. The words below are Al Jazeera's English rendering, not English as he spoke it.

”As long as the maritime siege and US actions continue, nothing significant will change in the Strait of Hormuz”As long as the maritime siege and US actions continue, nothing significant will change in the Strait of Hormuz
Ali Abdollahi, head of Iran's military central command

Represents the military line against the foreign ministry's diplomatic one. Accuses Washington of escalation and aims the threat at the neighbouring states that host American forces. The statement was read on Iranian state television, and the words below are Arab News's English rendering of it.

”Any country serving as defensive shield for criminal and aggressive America will be engulfed by the flames of war”Any country serving as defensive shield for criminal and aggressive America will be engulfed by the flames of war
Tahir Andrabi, spokesperson for Pakistan's foreign ministry

Pakistan brokered the Islamabad Memorandum in June and keeps the channel open although the text has collapsed. AP describes the country as a key mediator. The ministry calls the situation precarious but says talks are running to normalise it, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.

”We note with concern that the security situation remains precarious”We note with concern that the security situation remains precarious
Ali al-Zaidi, Prime Minister of Iraq

Iraq is neither a party nor a bystander. On 28 July he ordered the security agencies to investigate the alleged drone attacks on Saudi Arabia; the next day American and Saudi aircraft struck militias on Iraqi soil. In the Guardian's English translation he said Iraq was committed to preventing Iraqi territory from being used as a route or launching point for attacks on brotherly or friendly countries.

Resul Serdar, Al Jazeera correspondent in Tehran

Cuts against both official lines. Reports that Iran, despite public statements that nothing is being negotiated, is in practice showing some movement on how the strait would be run.

”Despite public statements, our sources tell us Iran is demonstrating some flexibility.”Despite public statements, our sources tell us Iran is demonstrating some flexibility.

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