··

God Morgon

Geopolitics · Europe · Sweden · Türkiye · the economy
Background

European energy security

Europe's firm capacity turns out to be weather-dependent: river-cooled nuclear and hydropower fail in the same weeks a heatwave pushes demand to its peak. Hungary and Romania held their grids together with imports and with large users asked to switch off. The offshore wind Denmark is buying instead is not due to be fully running until 2032, and only if the contracts are signed.

Paks supplies half of Hungary's electricity generation, by its own account, and it went fully offline for the first time since it opened: the Danube was too low to reach its cooling intakes. Romania shut one of Cernavodă's two reactors and declared an energy alert for August.
European energy security

A nuclear reactor is a machine for boiling water, and it needs a much larger flow of cold water to carry the waste heat away. Hungary's Paks plant draws that cooling water straight from the Danube, and Romania's Cernavodă takes it from a Danube branch. When the river drops far enough the intakes no longer reach it, and the reactor has to come down whatever the state of its fuel or its grid. The same low water cuts hydropower, and Bolojan says Romania can barely raise its hydro output.

Romania's National Institute of Hydrology puts the average July flow where the Danube enters the country at 4,700 cubic metres a second. On 29 July 2026 it was about 1,600. Magyar put the river at Paks at minus 121 centimetres against minus 97 in 2018, while the plant's own statement put the level 28 centimetres below the 2018 record. Paks went fully offline for the first time since it opened, taking 2,000 megawatts off the system. By its own account it supplies half of Hungary's electricity generation.

Demand moved the other way that week: the heat that emptied the rivers switched on the air conditioning. Hungary asked households to shift use out of the 17:00 to 22:00 peak. The grid operator Mavir told dozens of large users, battery and cement plants among them, to limit what they draw. Romania declared a national energy alert for August, and more than eighty energy-intensive companies were to cut back from 4 August. Dacia and Ford stopped their car plants until 19 August, giving up about 200 megawatts.

Imports only help if a neighbour has power to spare, and Bolojan says the neighbours are in the same position. Romania asked Ukraine for emergency evening supply, and sent the navy to blow up a rock formation blocking the branch that feeds Cernavodă. Imported power costs money, and the nearest measure of that is blunt. Eurostat puts euro area energy inflation at 10.0 percent in July 2026, against 10.8 in April and May, before the shutdowns. That is the euro area as a whole, not Hungary or Romania.

In the same weeks, Denmark was buying electricity for 2032. It tendered at least 1.8 gigawatts, and on 4 August 2026 a trade outlet reported that Vattenfall had won both sites. The Danish Energy Agency's own page still called the evaluation open. Denmark went back to subsidy after its unsubsidised North Sea round drew no bids in December 2024. The state has capped its net payments at 15.7 billion Danish kroner for one site and 21.9 billion for the other.

5.1Mar 202610.8Apr 202610.8May 20268.5Jun 202610Jul 2026
Euro area energy prices, annual rate month by month · percent · Source: Eurostat
The HICP energy component for the euro area, each month compared with the same month a year earlier, read off the table in Eurostat's flash estimate of 31 July 2026. The chart starts in March. Energy was cheaper than a year earlier as recently as February 2026, when the rate was minus 3.1 percent, and in July 2025, when it was minus 2.4 percent; neither month is drawn here. The July 2026 figure is marked as an estimate and may be revised. The release publishes no months between August 2025 and January 2026. This is the euro area aggregate and not the price in any one country.
”Against a normal consumption of over 7,000 MW in the evening hours, we are importing around 1,700 MW. If the second unit stops as well, we would have to import over 2,500 MW.”
Ilie BolojanInterim Prime Minister of Romania

The numbers

Paks: the size of the loss
2,000 MW
Prime Minister Péter Magyar said 2,000 megawatts would drop out of Hungarian generation from Monday 3 August at the latest. The plant's own statement, quoted by Telex, describes Paks as supplying half of Hungary's electricity. Telex calls this the first complete shutdown in a 44-year history, while Euronews says the plant opened 42 years ago. Magyar's figures put the Danube at Paks at minus 121 centimetres against minus 97 in 2018, the lowest recorded there until now. The plant's statement instead puts the level 28 centimetres below the 2018 record.
The Danube entering Romania
1,600 m³/s
Romania's National Institute of Hydrology gives the average July flow where the Danube enters the country as 4,700 cubic metres per second. By Wednesday 29 July 2026 it had fallen to about 1,600, less than a third of that, and the institute forecast a further fall to 1,500 by the following Tuesday.
Cernavodă
20%
Romania's only nuclear plant has two 706 megawatt reactors, which together provide about 20 percent of the country's power. The first was shut over low Danube levels in the last week of July 2026, and state-owned Nuclearelectrica was trying to keep the second running.
Romania: demand taken off the grid
200 MW
More than 80 of Romania's largest energy-intensive companies were to begin maintenance work or scale back production from Tuesday 4 August 2026. The Dacia and Ford car plants halted until 19 August, voluntarily cutting about 200 megawatts. The government declared a nationwide energy alert on 31 July 2026 for the whole of August.
Euro area energy prices, July 2026
Eurostat's flash estimate gives energy an annual rate of 10.0 percent in July 2026, up from 8.5 percent in June, the highest of the main components. Headline euro area annual inflation was expected at 2.9 percent, up from 2.8 percent.
The Danish award, and who is asserting what
Offshore Wind Biz reports that Vattenfall submitted the lowest bid for both sites and was named winner of Nordsøen Midt and Hesselø, at contract for difference strike prices of 504 and 542 Danish kroner per megawatt hour, to be guaranteed for 20 years from commissioning. Those are bid prices as reported by a trade outlet, not terms the agency has published. The same report, citing the Danish Energy Agency, puts the two sites at 1.8 gigawatts or more together and fully operational by 2032, and gives the 1,000 and 800 megawatt split between them as Vattenfall's own figure. The award is subject to formal verification before the contracts are signed.
What the Danish state has capped its payments at
The Danish Energy Agency states that the two farms were tendered with a support model in which the state guarantees producers a fixed price for their electricity, with a net payment ceiling of 15.7 billion Danish kroner for Nordsøen Midt and 21.9 billion Danish kroner for Hesselø. Bids closed on 20 May 2026. When we read the agency's own tender page on 7 August 2026 it still described the evaluation as running, and said it expected to finish that evaluation by January 2027 at the latest.
Why Denmark went back to subsidy
On 5 December 2024 the Danish Energy Agency announced that no bids at all had been submitted for any of the three North Sea wind farms in the first round of its 6 GW procurement. That round was offered without subsidies, bidders instead tendering a fixed annual concession payment to the state over 30 years. Lars Aagaard, Minister for Climate, Energy and Utilities, asked the agency to engage in dialogue with the market to identify the reasons, given the interest several companies had expressed during the initial market dialogue.

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

Hungary and Romania reached for the same two short-term tools: imported power, and large users and households asked to cut back in the evening. The Commission offered coordination rather than electricity, saying it stands ready to convene its Electricity Coordination Group. Both responses are short-dated. Romania's alert runs for the month of August, and Telex reported that Paks would not be restarted while the Danube kept falling.

Where they split

Magyar warned that an energy crisis could start within days. Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said the Commission saw no immediate energy security concerns, and András Perger, who puts Hungary's loss at 25 to 30 percent of output, expects no serious problems for the region. Ciprian Cherciu and Otto Brøns-Petersen want opposite things from the state. Cherciu says Romania should have refurbished its hydropower plants and built wind, solar and, above all, storage. Brøns-Petersen says the state should tender offshore wind only as fast as private investors are willing to fund it, because guaranteed prices leave neither politicians nor voters able to see the final bill. The tender Vattenfall has now won carries ceilings of its own, 15.7 and 21.9 billion Danish kroner for the two sites.

What nobody is saying

None of these sources cites a European rule saying how much a river-cooled reactor may be counted on in a dry August. The Danish farms are not due to be fully running until 2032, and only if the contracts are signed.

Who says what

Péter Magyar, Prime Minister of Hungary

Warns that an energy crisis could start within days. He says the shutdown and the cost of the emergency imports could have been avoided if the previous Orbán government had built a new pumping station. The problem of low water in the Danube, he says, has been known for years. If reserves, imports and voluntary restraint are not enough, large users can be disconnected in rotation, and the government is preparing the legislation for it.

”Ez azt jelenti, hogy legkésőbb hétfőtől 2000 megawatt kiesik a magyar energiatermelésből, miközben a fokozódó hőség miatt folyamatosan nő a lakossági és közületi villamosenergia-felhasználási igény.”This means that from Monday at the latest 2,000 megawatts will drop out of Hungarian energy production, while residential and public electricity demand keeps rising because of the intensifying heat.
Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, European Commission spokesperson

Says the Commission is watching Hungary and Romania and stands ready to convene an ad hoc meeting of its Electricity Coordination Group. That group, the Commission says, would help share information and coordinate next steps in the region. She stressed at the same time that there are currently no immediate energy security concerns.

”Although the operator has emergency measures in place to guarantee nuclear safety, an event of this kind could further strain the regional electricity balance”Although the operator has emergency measures in place to guarantee nuclear safety, an event of this kind could further strain the regional electricity balance
Ilie Bolojan, Interim Prime Minister of Romania

Declared a nationwide energy alert for August and put the numbers in public. Romania is covering its evening deficit with imports of about 1,700 megawatts. If the second Cernavodă reactor stops as well, the country loses about 20 percent of national generation, which is what the whole plant supplies. He says every neighbouring country is in the same position, with demand for imported power just as high, and he has asked Ukraine for emergency evening supply.

”Față de un consum normal de peste 7.000 MW în orele de seară, importăm aproximativ 1.700 MW. Dacă se oprește și grupul doi, ar trebui să importăm peste 2.500 MW.”Against a normal consumption of over 7,000 MW in the evening hours, we are importing around 1,700 MW. If the second unit stops as well, we would have to import over 2,500 MW.
András Perger, energy expert at the Hungarian NGO Energiaklub

Puts Hungary's loss from Monday at 25 to 30 percent of the country's output, which is less than the half of generation the plant claims for itself. He calls it a serious test of Hungarian and regional supply alike. He says imports from neighbouring countries can cover part of that loss, though hydropower availability is itself limited across the region.

”Although the situation in Hungary is stretched, I don't expect this to cause serious regional problems”Although the situation in Hungary is stretched, I don't expect this to cause serious regional problems
Ciprian Cherciu, Romanian energy expert

Says Romania lacks a coherent national energy strategy. He says the country should have refurbished its hydropower plants, built new generating capacity and expanded wind and solar. Those, he says, could provide an alternative when the nuclear plant cannot run at full capacity.

”Above all, Romania should have invested in developing electricity storage capacity. This is an area where the country remains significantly underdeveloped”Above all, Romania should have invested in developing electricity storage capacity. This is an area where the country remains significantly underdeveloped
Otto Brøns-Petersen, head of analysis at the Danish free-market think tank CEPOS

Attacked a Danish support plan in May 2025, fifteen months before Vattenfall won this tender. He argued that offshore wind should be tendered at the pace private investors are willing to fund it. Guaranteed prices, he wrote, leave neither politicians nor voters able to see what the final bill will be. The plan he was writing about was three gigawatts for up to 50 billion Danish kroner before VAT.

”Hvis havvind skal være støttefri, skal man skal belave sig på at udbygge i den takt og det omfang, der er markedsmæssig interesse for, og ikke beslutte udbygningstakten blandt folketingspolitikere omkring et forhandlingsbord.”If offshore wind is to be subsidy-free, you have to be prepared to build out at the pace and on the scale there is market interest for, and not decide the pace of build-out among members of parliament around a negotiating table.

Our coverage