European energy security
Europe's firm capacity turns out to be weather-dependent: river-cooled nuclear and hydropower fail in the same weeks a heatwave pushes demand to its peak. Hungary and Romania held their grids together with imports and with large users asked to switch off. The offshore wind Denmark is buying instead is not due to be fully running until 2032, and only if the contracts are signed.
A nuclear reactor is a machine for boiling water, and it needs a much larger flow of cold water to carry the waste heat away. Hungary's Paks plant draws that cooling water straight from the Danube, and Romania's Cernavodă takes it from a Danube branch. When the river drops far enough the intakes no longer reach it, and the reactor has to come down whatever the state of its fuel or its grid. The same low water cuts hydropower, and Bolojan says Romania can barely raise its hydro output.
Romania's National Institute of Hydrology puts the average July flow where the Danube enters the country at 4,700 cubic metres a second. On 29 July 2026 it was about 1,600. Magyar put the river at Paks at minus 121 centimetres against minus 97 in 2018, while the plant's own statement put the level 28 centimetres below the 2018 record. Paks went fully offline for the first time since it opened, taking 2,000 megawatts off the system. By its own account it supplies half of Hungary's electricity generation.
Demand moved the other way that week: the heat that emptied the rivers switched on the air conditioning. Hungary asked households to shift use out of the 17:00 to 22:00 peak. The grid operator Mavir told dozens of large users, battery and cement plants among them, to limit what they draw. Romania declared a national energy alert for August, and more than eighty energy-intensive companies were to cut back from 4 August. Dacia and Ford stopped their car plants until 19 August, giving up about 200 megawatts.
Imports only help if a neighbour has power to spare, and Bolojan says the neighbours are in the same position. Romania asked Ukraine for emergency evening supply, and sent the navy to blow up a rock formation blocking the branch that feeds Cernavodă. Imported power costs money, and the nearest measure of that is blunt. Eurostat puts euro area energy inflation at 10.0 percent in July 2026, against 10.8 in April and May, before the shutdowns. That is the euro area as a whole, not Hungary or Romania.
In the same weeks, Denmark was buying electricity for 2032. It tendered at least 1.8 gigawatts, and on 4 August 2026 a trade outlet reported that Vattenfall had won both sites. The Danish Energy Agency's own page still called the evaluation open. Denmark went back to subsidy after its unsubsidised North Sea round drew no bids in December 2024. The state has capped its net payments at 15.7 billion Danish kroner for one site and 21.9 billion for the other.
”Against a normal consumption of over 7,000 MW in the evening hours, we are importing around 1,700 MW. If the second unit stops as well, we would have to import over 2,500 MW.”
The numbers
What the comparison shows
Where they agree
Hungary and Romania reached for the same two short-term tools: imported power, and large users and households asked to cut back in the evening. The Commission offered coordination rather than electricity, saying it stands ready to convene its Electricity Coordination Group. Both responses are short-dated. Romania's alert runs for the month of August, and Telex reported that Paks would not be restarted while the Danube kept falling.
Where they split
Magyar warned that an energy crisis could start within days. Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said the Commission saw no immediate energy security concerns, and András Perger, who puts Hungary's loss at 25 to 30 percent of output, expects no serious problems for the region. Ciprian Cherciu and Otto Brøns-Petersen want opposite things from the state. Cherciu says Romania should have refurbished its hydropower plants and built wind, solar and, above all, storage. Brøns-Petersen says the state should tender offshore wind only as fast as private investors are willing to fund it, because guaranteed prices leave neither politicians nor voters able to see the final bill. The tender Vattenfall has now won carries ceilings of its own, 15.7 and 21.9 billion Danish kroner for the two sites.
What nobody is saying
None of these sources cites a European rule saying how much a river-cooled reactor may be counted on in a dry August. The Danish farms are not due to be fully running until 2032, and only if the contracts are signed.
Who says what
Warns that an energy crisis could start within days. He says the shutdown and the cost of the emergency imports could have been avoided if the previous Orbán government had built a new pumping station. The problem of low water in the Danube, he says, has been known for years. If reserves, imports and voluntary restraint are not enough, large users can be disconnected in rotation, and the government is preparing the legislation for it.
”Ez azt jelenti, hogy legkésőbb hétfőtől 2000 megawatt kiesik a magyar energiatermelésből, miközben a fokozódó hőség miatt folyamatosan nő a lakossági és közületi villamosenergia-felhasználási igény.”This means that from Monday at the latest 2,000 megawatts will drop out of Hungarian energy production, while residential and public electricity demand keeps rising because of the intensifying heat.
Says the Commission is watching Hungary and Romania and stands ready to convene an ad hoc meeting of its Electricity Coordination Group. That group, the Commission says, would help share information and coordinate next steps in the region. She stressed at the same time that there are currently no immediate energy security concerns.
”Although the operator has emergency measures in place to guarantee nuclear safety, an event of this kind could further strain the regional electricity balance”Although the operator has emergency measures in place to guarantee nuclear safety, an event of this kind could further strain the regional electricity balance
Declared a nationwide energy alert for August and put the numbers in public. Romania is covering its evening deficit with imports of about 1,700 megawatts. If the second Cernavodă reactor stops as well, the country loses about 20 percent of national generation, which is what the whole plant supplies. He says every neighbouring country is in the same position, with demand for imported power just as high, and he has asked Ukraine for emergency evening supply.
”Față de un consum normal de peste 7.000 MW în orele de seară, importăm aproximativ 1.700 MW. Dacă se oprește și grupul doi, ar trebui să importăm peste 2.500 MW.”Against a normal consumption of over 7,000 MW in the evening hours, we are importing around 1,700 MW. If the second unit stops as well, we would have to import over 2,500 MW.
Puts Hungary's loss from Monday at 25 to 30 percent of the country's output, which is less than the half of generation the plant claims for itself. He calls it a serious test of Hungarian and regional supply alike. He says imports from neighbouring countries can cover part of that loss, though hydropower availability is itself limited across the region.
”Although the situation in Hungary is stretched, I don't expect this to cause serious regional problems”Although the situation in Hungary is stretched, I don't expect this to cause serious regional problems
Says Romania lacks a coherent national energy strategy. He says the country should have refurbished its hydropower plants, built new generating capacity and expanded wind and solar. Those, he says, could provide an alternative when the nuclear plant cannot run at full capacity.
”Above all, Romania should have invested in developing electricity storage capacity. This is an area where the country remains significantly underdeveloped”Above all, Romania should have invested in developing electricity storage capacity. This is an area where the country remains significantly underdeveloped
Attacked a Danish support plan in May 2025, fifteen months before Vattenfall won this tender. He argued that offshore wind should be tendered at the pace private investors are willing to fund it. Guaranteed prices, he wrote, leave neither politicians nor voters able to see what the final bill will be. The plan he was writing about was three gigawatts for up to 50 billion Danish kroner before VAT.
”Hvis havvind skal være støttefri, skal man skal belave sig på at udbygge i den takt og det omfang, der er markedsmæssig interesse for, og ikke beslutte udbygningstakten blandt folketingspolitikere omkring et forhandlingsbord.”If offshore wind is to be subsidy-free, you have to be prepared to build out at the pace and on the scale there is market interest for, and not decide the pace of build-out among members of parliament around a negotiating table.
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