··

God Morgon

Geopolitics · Europe · Sweden · Türkiye · the economy
Background

The Strait of Hormuz

The strait carries oil equal to about a fifth of world petroleum liquids consumption and about a fifth of traded liquefied natural gas, and on EIA's June 2025 estimate the pipelines around it hold only some 2.6 million barrels a day of spare capacity, which makes control of passage a lever long before the strait is fully closed. By October 2026 the lever had reached past the strait itself, and the two sides did not agree on whether it was open.

Kpler counted nearly 20.8 million barrels of oil through the strait on 8 October 2026 and 2.9 million on 11 October. Before the war about 100 ships a day crossed. Iran's parliament speaker said in early October that the strait would not be opened until the United States met seven conditions; in August Iran had asked for recognised control of its own side, a fee system for ships, and an end to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports.
The Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is the sea passage between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest it is about 33 kilometres across. The US Energy Information Administration puts average oil flows through it at about 20 million barrels a day in 2024, roughly a fifth of world consumption of petroleum liquids. Around a fifth of globally traded liquefied natural gas took the same route that year, most of it from Qatar.

The US-Israel war on Iran began on 28 February 2026, and Iran restricted passage to most ships from early March, in what Al Jazeera called an effective closure. A memorandum of understanding with Washington reopened it on 17 June for 60 days. It fell apart in July over which routes ships should take. By July ships were avoiding the pre-war channels for fear of naval mines, using two corridors, one in Iranian and one in Omani waters under US oversight. Through September Iran widened its restricted zone beyond the strait.

Almost none of that oil has another way out. EIA said in June 2025 that only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines round the strait, Aramco's East-West line to Yanbu at 5 million barrels a day and a 1.8 million barrel line to Fujairah. Neither runs full, and EIA put the capacity available in a disruption at about 2.6 million barrels a day. Ankara and Baghdad renewed the Kirkuk to Ceyhan pipeline on 1 August 2026 at 750,000 barrels a day, against actual flows near 170,000 on Turkish data.

The Law of the Sea Convention says transit passage through an international strait shall not be impeded and shall not be suspended. Articles 38 and 44 say nothing about charging for it. Al Jazeera writes that maritime law bars tolls for passage itself but lets a coastal state charge for services such as pilotage. Iran wants recognised control of its own side and a fee system for ships, and said in early August 2026 that it will not reopen the strait until Washington lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports.

In October Tehran said the strait was closed. US Central Command said commercial and energy traffic was continuing, including an estimated 20 million barrels of crude. Gulf News gave it on 8 October with no period attached, so it is not EIA's daily 20 million. Kpler counted nearly 20.8 million barrels that day and 2.9 million on the 11th. Projectiles hit the tanker Acers off Qatar on 7 October, with casualties reported, and mines hit two tankers on 17 October. Qatar and France called for navigation without constraints or fees.

19.1202019.4202121.4202221.4202320.32024
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, annual average before the war · million barrels per day · Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products combined. The annual values come from the figure-data workbook EIA publishes alongside the article, and the estimate is based on Vortexa tanker tracking. The series ends in 2024 and so describes the position before the war.
”Even short of a full shutdown, 'permissioning' and pressure can impose major costs and uncertainty”
Jack Kennedyhead of MENA country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence

The numbers

Oil flow through the strait, 2024
20 million
About 20 million barrels a day, the equivalent of about 20 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption, on EIA's estimate.
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Who ships through the strait, 2024
EIA tanker-tracking estimates for 2024 put Saudi Arabian crude and product flows through the strait at about 5.5 million barrels a day, Iraq's at 3.2 million, the United Arab Emirates' at 1.9 million and Kuwait's at 1.3 million. Of the crude and condensate, 84 percent went to Asian buyers, and China, India, Japan and South Korea took 69 percent between them. Europe took about 0.7 million barrels a day of the crude. The country and destination figures come from the figure-data workbook EIA publishes alongside the article.
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Share of global LNG trade, 2024
About 20 percent of traded liquefied natural gas transited the strait; Qatar shipped about 9.3 billion cubic feet a day that way, on EIA's estimate.
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Spare capacity in the pipelines around the strait
EIA estimated in June 2025 that about 2.6 million barrels a day of the Saudi and Emirati pipeline capacity could be available in a disruption, against about 20 million barrels a day that normally transits.
U.S. Energy Information Administration
The 17 June memorandum of understanding
The memorandum between Washington and Tehran required Iran to keep the strait open to shipping for at least 60 days. Al Jazeera reports that it fell apart in July, that the two sides disagreed primarily over which routes ships should take, and that Iran attacked several ships using an Oman-approved route backed by the United States.
Al Jazeera
Transits, 18 June to 5 July 2026
513 ships transited between 18 June and 5 July 2026, an average of 28 a day, according to PortWatch data; before the war about 100 ships a day crossed.
Al Jazeera
Attacks on shipping in the strait, August 2026
ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi state oil company, said on 7 August 2026 that 15 of its vessels had been attacked in Hormuz since the war began, three of them that week. The UAE foreign ministry said Iran struck an ADNOC tanker with a missile on 8 August, without casualties. UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a ship hit by a projectile off Oman in the strait the same day; whether it was the same vessel was not established.
Hürriyet Daily News
Seafarers stranded in the Gulf
About 6,000 as of 9 July 2026, according to the International Maritime Organization, aboard ships unable to transit the strait safely.
Al Jazeera
Iraq's loss of exports
Iraqi oil exports collapsed by more than 80 percent in the weeks after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February 2026, and monthly oil revenues fell from around $6bn to under $2bn.
Al Jazeera
The Kirkuk to Ceyhan pipeline
The renewed transit deal of 1 August 2026 covers 750,000 barrels a day. The line's maximum capacity is about 1.5 million barrels a day and it was carrying about 170,000 on 1 August 2026, according to Turkish data.
Al Jazeera
What the law of the sea says
Article 38 of the Law of the Sea Convention gives all ships and aircraft a right of transit passage, which shall not be impeded, and article 44 states that there shall be no suspension of transit passage.
United Nations
What Washington demands
US officials said on 6 August 2026 that the administration wants total freedom of commercial navigation through the waterway, without Iranian tolls and without any arrangement requiring ships to obtain Tehran's approval before transiting.
Al Jazeera
The shipowners' letter to the UN
Eight of the world's largest shipping associations wrote to the UN secretary-general and the head of the International Maritime Organization that charging vessels to transit the strait would violate international norms and harm the global economy. The letter was reported by Al Jazeera on 6 August 2026.
Al Jazeera
Attacks outside the strait, 7 and 8 October 2026
The tanker Acers was hit by several projectiles about 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal in Qatar on 7 October, and UKMTO reported casualties without giving details. The next day the maritime intelligence firm Vanguard reported a fire on a tanker about 40 kilometres off Fujairah, which it identified as likely the Dhalgout; UKMTO had not recorded that incident and the cause was not immediately clear. Neither Iran nor IRGC-affiliated media officially claimed either attack, but IRGC-affiliated outlets implicitly suggested Tehran had extended its operations to waters beyond the strait
Euronews
What each side says is passing, October 2026
16.5 million b/d
Tehran said the strait was closed. US Central Command rejected that, saying commercial and energy traffic was continuing, including an estimated 20 million barrels of crude oil. Gulf News gave no period for that figure. It also reported Kpler data putting Gulf crude and condensate exports excluding Iran at about 16.5 million barrels a day in September 2026, close to pre-war levels. Brent traded at 102.84 dollars on 8 October 2026, up 2.63 percent
Gulf News
Iran and Oman on designated safe routes
The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the two had agreed the coordinates of designated safe routes for ships entering and leaving the strait, and how to pass them to an international maritime authority. Gulf News wrote that Iran had continued to impose conditions on navigation, so the agreement was not the same as the strait being open
Gulf News
The mines, 17 October 2026
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two oil tankers, each carrying about two million barrels of crude, caught fire after hitting naval mines in the strait. The first hit a mine, triggering an explosion and a "fierce fire", the IRGC said on Saturday 17 October; the second was engulfed "in a massive blaze", IRNA reported. IRNA said both vessels had switched off their positioning and radar systems and tried to use a route Iran had not authorised, and the IRGC claimed one crossed "with US support". IRGC naval commander Rear Admiral Ali Azmaei had warned that week that any vessel deactivating its navigation systems would be considered "hostile". The ships' names and the origin of their cargo were not immediately available. Al Jazeera also reported Kpler data putting flows through the strait at nearly 20.8 million barrels of oil on 8 October and 2.9 million on 11 October.
Al Jazeera
Qatar and France on fees, 21 October 2026
After the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, met President Emmanuel Macron in Doha, a joint statement stressed the importance of restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz "without constraints or fees". The statement also said the two leaders "condemned Iranian military attacks against countries in the region which constitute a serious breach of international law". A Qatari mediator had said the day before that diplomatic efforts to reopen the strait were continuing, and Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said the same day as the statement that "Iran is prepared to give diplomacy another chance."
Al Jazeera
Iran's seven conditions, as stated in early October 2026
Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told parliament that "the era of wasting time and dictating unilateral demands is over" and that "the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened until our seven conditions based on the Islamabad Memorandum are met". Gulf News, reporting the speech on 5 October 2026, describes those conditions as based on the 14-point memorandum of understanding signed in June, and says Washington had recently put proposals to Tehran through a mediator.
Gulf News
Where the strait stood on 29 October 2026
UKMTO said a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile at about 1600 GMT on 29 October 2026 while completing an outbound transit of the strait, near Khasab in Oman, with no reported crew injuries. It did not identify the weapon or say who fired it. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps separately claimed three tankers exploded after striking mines on a southern route Tehran called unauthorised. Gulf News wrote that the claim had not been independently verified and that the Associated Press could not confirm Iran's account.
Gulf News

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

The strait carries oil equal to about a fifth of world petroleum liquids consumption and about a fifth of traded liquefied natural gas, and there is no substitute route on that scale: EIA puts spare pipeline capacity at about 2.6 million barrels a day against roughly 20 million that normally transits. The head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global says the damage starts well before a full closure, because making passage conditional on permission is already enough to load costs and uncertainty onto shipping.

Where they split

Iran and Washington disagree first about money and control. Iran has signalled that it plans some form of fee system for ships. Washington wants freedom of navigation with no Iranian tolls and no requirement that ships obtain Tehran's approval before transiting. Al Jazeera, citing Reuters, reported on 28 July 2026 that Oman had put a middle course to Iran, a joint regional mechanism with voluntary fees on the Strait of Malacca model. Ankara and Baghdad present the renewed Kirkuk to Ceyhan pipeline as a strategic alternative to the strait; Turkish data put its flow at about 170,000 barrels a day on 1 August 2026, and it sits outside EIA's spare-capacity estimate, which covers the Saudi and Emirati lines only.

What nobody is saying

Al Jazeera reported on 28 July 2026 that mine clearance would reportedly be Iran's responsibility. That report does not say when clearance happens, who verifies that a lane is clear, or what follows if verification never comes. On Al Jazeera's account of 9 July the central part of the strait, where the seabed is believed to be most mined, was largely unused. No price for war-risk cover on a Hormuz transit is public either: Al Jazeera reported on 1 May that insurance and war-risk premiums were rising, and gave no figure for the strait.

Who says what

Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister

A deal with Oman does not mean the strait opens. He said on 8 August 2026 that talks with Oman were approaching their final stages, while cautioning that this was not a sign of reopening.

”The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is subject to other conditions and compensation for the violation of the memorandum of understanding by the United States”The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is subject to other conditions and compensation for the violation of the memorandum of understanding by the United States
Source: Hürriyet Daily News · Saturday, 8 August 2026
Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs

The strait cannot return to its pre-war state of free-flowing shipping. He rejects an Omani proposal for an equal division of the transit routes between the two countries, saying it does not address Iran's security concerns, and proposes instead that Iran manage shipping on its own side while Muscat manages part but not all of the opposite lane. Iran, he says, will consider any action to keep control, including a resumption of the war.

Source: Al Jazeera · Tuesday, 28 July 2026
Resul Serdar, Al Jazeera correspondent in Tehran

Reports what the Omanis are offering now: three separate lanes, not the two-way division of the routes that Iran rejected the same day. His sources tell him Iran is showing some flexibility despite its public statements.

”The Omanis are now suggesting three lines for the maritime traffic: one that runs through Iran’s territorial waters, an international one, and one through Omani territorial waters”The Omanis are now suggesting three lines for the maritime traffic: one that runs through Iran's territorial waters, an international one, and one through Omani territorial waters
Source: Al Jazeera · Tuesday, 28 July 2026
Jack Kennedy, head of MENA country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence

The damage does not begin at closure. Making passage conditional on permission is enough to load costs and uncertainty onto shipping, and the danger is the precedent: if several states test the boundaries with selective enforcement, tolls or levies in international straits, outcomes are settled by bargaining power.

”Even short of a full shutdown, ‘permissioning’ and pressure can impose major costs and uncertainty”Even short of a full shutdown, 'permissioning' and pressure can impose major costs and uncertainty
Source: Al Jazeera · Friday, 1 May 2026
Jean-Paul Rodrigue, professor in the maritime business administration department at Texas A&M University

Treats maritime pressure as an old instrument now used on a far larger merchant fleet.

”Maritime action has always been an important aspect to weigh pressure on an enemy’s economy and military – there is nothing new there, but what has changed is the scale, the volume of containers, the size of the global fleet”Maritime action has always been an important aspect to weigh pressure on an enemy's economy and military, there is nothing new there, but what has changed is the scale, the volume of containers, the size of the global fleet
Source: Al Jazeera · Friday, 1 May 2026
Alparslan Bayraktar, Türkiye's energy minister

The transit arrangement on the Kirkuk to Ceyhan pipeline is back in force. He announced on 1 August 2026, after a meeting in Ankara with Iraq's oil minister, that an arrangement covering a daily capacity of 750,000 barrels had been implemented, while talks on a long-term agreement continue.

Source: Al Jazeera · Saturday, 1 August 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration, the statistical agency of the US Department of Energy

Flows through the strait made up more than a quarter of all global seaborne oil trade in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.

”Most volumes that transit the strait have no alternative means of exiting the region, although there are some pipeline alternatives that can avoid the Strait of Hormuz.”Most volumes that transit the strait have no alternative means of exiting the region, although there are some pipeline alternatives that can avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · Monday, 16 June 2025

Our coverage