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God Morgon

Geopolitics · Europe · Sweden · Türkiye · the economy
Background

Europe's heat, fires and drought

Europe fights its fires with borrowed aircraft: a country that cannot cope asks the emergency response coordination centre in Brussels for help, other countries offer what they can spare, and the EU pays up to three quarters of the cost. The Union's own planes do not arrive until 2028, and the same heat is emptying the rivers the continent ships on.

In one week of July 2026 the EU sent France 7 planes and 4 helicopters from seven countries. Most were rescEU aircraft, hosted by member states and kept on standby with Commission money. The same heat pushed the Danube below the cooling intakes at Hungary's only nuclear plant.
Europe's heat, fires and drought

Europe treats extreme heat as a civil-protection problem. The machinery is the EU civil protection mechanism, which the Commission set up in October 2001 and which now covers 37 countries. A country that cannot cope alone asks the emergency response coordination centre in Brussels for help. The centre passes the request to every participant. Each offers what it can spare: aircraft, crews, vehicles, experts. The stricken country picks from the offers. The Commission coordinates delivery and pays part of the bill, and Copernicus satellites supply the maps.

In the last week of July 2026 the EU sent France 7 planes and 4 helicopters from seven countries, and Spain 6 planes and 134 personnel from Portugal. More than 300,000 people had fled their homes in the two countries. Three Greek firefighters died on 29 July, on Crete and in southern Greece. Spain that week raised a fire to operational level 3 for the first time in its history, moving command from the region to the national government. The emergency was stood down on 30 July.

Offers are voluntary, and the Commission's case for holding a reserve is that countries can help each other less when several face the same crisis at once. rescEU stood at 22 planes and 5 helicopters in 2026, and most of the aircraft that flew to France came from it. The reserve is not a separate air force: member states host the aircraft, and the Commission pays for their standby and 75 percent of the cost of operating them. The Union's own 12 planes are due from early 2028.

Europe is warming twice as fast as the global average, according to the Copernicus climate service. World Weather Attribution found that fire weather as extreme as central Spain's in July 2026 is now at least 20 times likelier than in a pre-industrial climate. France has burned more this year than in any completed year since the EFFIS records begin in 2006. A Commission policy paper published earlier in 2026 called for wider grazing, restored wetlands and floodplains, better fire data and a better informed public.

On 29 July 2026 the Danube entering Romania ran at under a third of its usual July flow, and in several countries it was the lowest in 30 years. Shipping stopped in Bulgaria, where border police took 186 passengers off a cruise ship aground near Vidin. At Paks, Hungary's only nuclear plant, the water fell below the cooling intakes, and Péter Magyar said on 30 July that it would shut down for the first time in 44 years. By 11 August only two of its eight turbines were running again.

63,560201552,6442016130,925201712,433201863,853201961,099202084,8272021306,555202291,220202342,6152024393,0792025
Area burnt in Spain by year, EFFIS · hectares · Source: EFFIS
Satellite-mapped area burnt in fires of about 30 hectares or larger, the eleven most recent completed calendar years; EFFIS applies the same threshold across the whole series. 2026 is left out because the year is still running: Spain stood at 296,939 hectares on 21 August 2026 and the figure keeps climbing. Every figure here comes from one reading of the EFFIS statistics service, taken on 21 August 2026.
”The [emergency] response is not only the answer. It’s the last answer. But it’s not all the answer. We need to focus on prevention.”
Moisés Galán Santanowildfire expert at the EU's emergency response coordination centre

The numbers

What the EU sent to France and Spain
7 planes and 4 helicopters from Czechia, Croatia, Germany, Portugal, Slovakia, Sweden and Türkiye to France; 6 planes from Greece, Italy and Türkiye plus 134 personnel and 41 vehicles from Portugal to Spain. The fires had by then displaced more than 300,000 people in the two countries.
What the mechanism is
The European Commission established the EU civil protection mechanism in October 2001. It links the EU countries to ten further participating states, among them Norway, Iceland, Türkiye and Ukraine. Any country hit by a disaster can request assistance, and the Commission coordinates the response and contributes to transport or operational costs.
The permanent fleet arrives in 2028
The EU is buying 12 firefighting planes to be based in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Croatia and Greece, plus 5 helicopters. The first helicopter was delivered to Romania in January 2026; the first planes are expected in early 2028.
Who pays
Union financial assistance shall not exceed 75 percent of transport cost for capacities not pre-committed to the European Civil Protection Pool, nor 75 percent of the cost of operating capacities that are pre-committed to it, and covers 75 percent of operational costs when rescEU capacities are deployed.
France has already passed its worst full year
96,332 ha
France's worst completed year in the EFFIS series, which begins in 2006, is 2022, at 66,337 hectares. The 2026 season had already passed it: EFFIS put France at 96,332 hectares on 21 August 2026, a running year-to-date figure that keeps climbing while the season lasts. Both counts cover fires of about 30 hectares or larger.
How far the climate has moved fire weather
20x
In a rapid analysis, World Weather Attribution found that fire weather as extreme as central Spain's in July 2026, measured as the peak seven-day Daily Severity Rating, is now at least 20 times more likely than in a pre-industrial climate. For southwestern France it put the increase at a factor of at least two, and called that a conservative estimate.
The Danube where it enters Romania
1,600 m³/s
Romania's National Institute of Hydrology puts the average July flow where the Danube enters the country at 4,700 cubic metres per second. On Wednesday 29 July 2026 it stood at 1,600, less than a third of that, and the institute forecast 1,500 by the following Tuesday.
The nuclear plant that lost its river
240 MW
Hungary's prime minister, Péter Magyar, said on 2 August 2026 that Paks would be powered down, the first full shutdown in its 44-year history. Output had already fallen to 965 megawatts on the Friday and to 240 overnight, against about 2,000 normally. The plant supplies nearly half of Hungary's electricity. A Danube level of minus 134 centimetres at Paks forces a complete shutdown, and the river was forecast to fall past the record low set there in 2018.
Firefighters killed
Three Greek firefighters died tackling fires on Crete and in the south of the Greek mainland, according to the Greek fire department, on 29 July 2026.

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

Pedro Sánchez called Spain's first nationally led fire response a reasonable success, and asked for a national pact on the climate emergency. Hadja Lahbib called the July deployment the reason Europe built a common response capacity, and promised France and Spain more support until the fires were out.

Where they split

Moisés Galán, a wildfire expert at the Commission's own coordination centre, says putting fires out is the last resort and not the whole job, and that prevention is years of work out in the landscape. Vula Tsetsi of the European Green party locates the gap in Brussels instead: the Commission's heating and cooling plan was expected in April 2026 and had not appeared by the end of July. Pedro Sánchez wants a single pact covering response, prevention and reconstruction, which places him beside Galán rather than against him. The Commission's own account of July leads with what flew and who sent it.

What nobody is saying

What gets published is what was sent. The Commission's release of 27 July lists the aircraft that flew and the countries that sent them, and says nothing about any request that went unanswered. The decision that governs the mechanism sets three cost shares of 75 percent, and every one of them pays for a deployment; none pays for work done before a fire starts.

Who says what

Hadja Lahbib, European Commissioner for Preparedness and Crisis Management

Presents the July deployment as the common response capacity working as intended, and says more support is standing ready the moment France and Spain ask for it.

”Right now, hundreds of thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes, while firefighters battle walls of flame in dramatic conditions to save lives and communities. No country should ever have to face a disaster of this scale alone.”Right now, hundreds of thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes, while firefighters battle walls of flame in dramatic conditions to save lives and communities. No country should ever have to face a disaster of this scale alone.
Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister of Spain

Called Spain's first nationally led fire response a reasonable success and ended the national emergency on 30 July. Wants a broad national pact on the climate emergency covering response, prevention and reconstruction alike.

”Tenemos que estar unidos en la respuesta, pero tenemos que estar unidos también en la prevención y en la reconstrucción”We have to be united in the response, but we have to be united also in prevention and in reconstruction
Moisés Galán Santano, wildfire expert at the EU's emergency response coordination centre

Puts prevention ahead of suppression, and does so from inside the centre that dispatches the aircraft. The work will take many years, he says.

”The [emergency] response is not only the answer. It’s the last answer. But it’s not all the answer. We need to focus on prevention.”The [emergency] response is not only the answer. It’s the last answer. But it’s not all the answer. We need to focus on prevention.
Vula Tsetsi, co-chair of the European Green Party

The problem is not solidarity during the fire but the absence of European decisions between fires. The Commission's heating and cooling plan was expected in April 2026 and had still not appeared at the end of July.

”There is a widening gap between the scale of Europe’s heatwaves – literally hitting every EU country – and the absence of decisive European action.”There is a widening gap between the scale of Europe’s heatwaves – literally hitting every EU country – and the absence of decisive European action.
Dominik Schumacher, climate scientist at ETH Zurich, on the World Weather Attribution team that analysed the 2026 drought

The drought is driven less by missing rain than by warmer air pulling moisture out; the 2026 drought arrived two months earlier than the one in 2022.

”That is our own doing: as temperatures climb, the atmosphere’s thirst increases quickly, sucking moisture out of rivers, lakes, reservoirs and the soil.”That is our own doing: as temperatures climb, the atmosphere’s thirst increases quickly, sucking moisture out of rivers, lakes, reservoirs and the soil.
Ivan Zhekov, head of river supervision at Bulgaria's maritime administration agency

Oversees river traffic on Bulgaria's stretch of the Danube, where shipping stopped altogether in late July 2026, and says nothing like these levels has been recorded there since 1990.

”I have never heard of such low levels over the years. There has certainly not been a similar situation since 1990”I have never heard of such low levels over the years. There has certainly not been a similar situation since 1990

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