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Background

The AfD's wins in Germany's states, and who will govern with it

The far-right AfD came first in two German state elections in September 2026 and took 43.8 percent in Saxony-Anhalt on the final count. It holds 39 of the 83 seats there, and no party has agreed to enter a coalition with it. On 6 October the Saxony-Anhalt parliament elected an AfD politician to chair the chamber, with votes from outside his own party.

The CDU polled 4.9 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and missed a state parliament for the first time in the Federal Republic's history. Two weeks before, it had lost Saxony-Anhalt to the AfD, a state it had governed for 24 years. The AfD's Ulrich Siegmund says he will stand for minister-president there in December, and for one round of voting only.
The AfD's wins in Germany's states, and who will govern with it

The AfD won two of Germany's three state elections in September 2026. In Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September it took 43.8 percent on the final count, 23 points more than in 2021, which the OSW Centre for Eastern Studies called the best result in the party's history. The CDU, after 24 years in power there, fell 19.9 points to 17.2 percent. Two weeks later the AfD took 38.2 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, ahead of the SPD on 35.5. The CDU polled 4.9 percent there and missed the five percent threshold.

The CDU, the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke all rule out governing with the AfD, a refusal Germans call the Brandmauer, or firewall. The CDU says the policy is necessary because the AfD threatens Germany's constitutional order. The AfD says it is undemocratic. Reuters noted in August that the AfD had entered no government, state or federal, and that the Politbarometer had it at 27 percent nationally against 22 for the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU.

On 6 October the new Saxony-Anhalt parliament elected Tobias Rausch of the AfD as its president, the first from his party to lead a German state parliament. The president chairs its sittings, runs its administration and ranks first in the state's protocol. Rausch got 48 votes, four more than the AfD and the BSW hold together. The CDU's leaders had told its members to abstain together. The party had 14 of its 15 members in the chamber, and five abstentions were counted in all.

An absolute majority in the chamber is 42 of the 83 seats. The AfD has 39, and the CDU, the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke have 39 between them, which leaves the BSW's five votes to decide which side can reach it. The BSW, which said before the election that it would cooperate with the AfD, had promised Rausch its five. It has ruled out a formal coalition, and offers instead to support a minority government on individual laws.

The results elsewhere did not all run one way. Die Linke came first in Berlin, where the AfD was third. On 9 October the SPD, Die Linke and the Greens agreed to open coalition talks in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Inside the CDU the Brandmauer itself is contested. After the September defeats some members pushed to end the ostracism of the AfD, and regional party bodies called for the resignation of Sven Schulze, who has led the state government since January.

”I will not hold this office as the president of one group, but as the president of the whole Saxony-Anhalt parliament.”
Tobias RauschPresident of the Saxony-Anhalt parliament, AfD

The numbers

Saxony-Anhalt, 6 September 2026
43.8%
AfD 43.8 percent, up 23 points on 2021, which OSW calls the best result in the party's history. The CDU, which had governed the state for 24 years, fell 19.9 points to 17.2 percent.
The final count in Saxony-Anhalt
39 of 83
The state returning officer's final count gave the AfD 43.8 percent and 39 of the 83 seats. The CDU took 15 seats, the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke eight each, and the BSW five. The FDP missed the threshold.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, 20 September 2026
AfD 38.2 percent, SPD 35.5, Die Linke 6.5, Greens 5.7, CDU 4.9 and below the threshold, on the state returning officer's provisional final count. An alliance led by the SPD would have a majority without the AfD.
What the CDU's 4.9 percent meant
0 seats
The CDU missed entry to a state parliament for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic. It had taken 13.3 percent in the state in 2021.
Who governs in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: where it stood on 9 October 2026
The SPD, Die Linke and the Greens agreed to open coalition talks. The three hold more than half of the 71 seats between them, against the AfD's 32, and all three rule out working with it. If the talks succeed the AfD will be the only opposition party there.
Berlin, 20 September 2026
Die Linke first on 25.7 percent, the CDU on 18.8 and the AfD third on 16.3, on the Infratest dimap projection Euronews reported the day after the vote.
President of the Saxony-Anhalt parliament, 6 October 2026
48 votes
Tobias Rausch of the AfD was elected with 48 votes in a secret ballot, against an absolute majority of 42. The AfD has 39 seats and the BSW had promised its five, so members of other groups voted for him too.
The minister-president vote, as it stood on 6 October 2026
Siegmund says he will stand in December, and for one round of voting only. He says he is talking to the BSW and to individual members of other groups, whose votes he would probably need. The AfD wants to work with the BSW, and the shape of that arrangement is not settled.
National standing, Politbarometer, late August 2026
AfD 27 percent, the CDU and its Bavarian sister party the CSU 22, on the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen measure.

What the comparison shows

Where they agree

The AfD came first in two states, and the CDU failed to enter a state parliament for the first time in the Federal Republic's history. Sahra Wagenknecht, who founded the BSW, said after the 6 October vote that the Brandmauer had failed and that Siegmund's election in December had become likely. The SPD's general secretary, Tim Klüssendorf, said the CDU now had to explain who in its own ranks had thought that vote was right.

Where they split

Merz answers the defeats with reforms inside his own camp and says he is holding his course. Weidel says the refusal to work with her party is what makes the CDU lose, and the national polls are her evidence: in late August they put the AfD ahead of the CDU and the CSU. Holm asked the other parties in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern to talk to him, and the three that can govern without him opened talks with each other instead. Eralp's win cuts the other way: Die Linke came first in Berlin on housing, and the AfD finished third.

What nobody is saying

Where Rausch's four extra votes came from is not known, because the ballot was secret. Schulze, who also leads the CDU's group in the parliament, said the suggestion that they came from his own members could not be traced. The December vote on a minister-president will test whether those votes come again. OSW notes that the state constitution sets no deadline for that vote, and that a simple majority would be enough if it reached a third round.

Who says what

Tobias Rausch, President of the Saxony-Anhalt parliament, AfD

Took the chair of the parliament on 6 October with votes from beyond his own party. He said he would hold the office for the whole chamber and not for his group, and that the rules of the parliament must stand even when majorities change. He also said the age of political firewalls should be over.

”Ich werde dieses Amt nicht als Präsident einer Fraktion führen, sondern als Präsident des gesamten Landtages von Sachsen-Anhalt führen”I will not hold this office as the president of one group, but as the president of the whole Saxony-Anhalt parliament.
Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany, leader of the CDU

Says the Saxony-Anhalt result changed Germany as a whole and that there will have to be consequences. He promises fundamental reforms while saying he is sticking to his own course without wavering.

”We are all profoundly shocked. We did not expect it to turn out like this.”We are all profoundly shocked. We did not expect it to turn out like this.
Alice Weidel, Co-leader of the AfD

Said before the vote that the AfD would form the government in Saxony-Anhalt. She argues that the CDU's refusal to work with her party is weakening the conservatives and will eventually let the AfD govern nationally.

”The CDU will never win another federal election”The CDU will never win another federal election.
Leif-Erik Holm, AfD lead candidate in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Came first in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and claimed the right to form the next state government. He said the AfD would naturally also talk to all the other parties.

”It's about the people of our state. We want to improve politics,”It's about the people of our state. We want to improve politics.
Elif Eralp, Die Linke lead candidate in Berlin

Led Die Linke to first place in Berlin on the night the AfD came first in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. She campaigned on rents, social housing and taking large housing portfolios into public ownership.

”If a left-wing candidate can win in New York, then there's no reason it can't happen in Berlin.”If a left-wing candidate can win in New York, then there's no reason it can't happen in Berlin.

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