Saturday, 3 October 2026 ··

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Geopolitics · Europe · Sweden · Türkiye · the economy

Türkiye

Trump reaffirms support for Erdoğan as CAATSA sanctions remain unlifted

Trump reaffirms support for Erdoğan as CAATSA sanctions remain unlifted

President Trump told reporters on October 3 that Erdoğan is “a friend of mine” and that he will “always make him happy,” renewing his personal backing three months after promising at the NATO summit in Ankara to lift the CAATSA sanctions. Washington imposed those sanctions in 2020 over Türkiye's purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems, and they also cost Türkiye its place in the F-35 programme. The sanctions are still in force: friendly words from the White House driveway are not the policy change Ankara is waiting for.

Türkiye moves to rewrite capital markets law after $20 billion fund scandal

Türkiye moves to rewrite capital markets law after $20 billion fund scandal

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz's new Fund Coordination Board instructed regulators on October 2 to finalise amendments to the Capital Markets Law, three weeks after authorities ordered 131 investment funds from seven companies, holding $20 billion for nearly 500,000 investors, into liquidation over suspected price manipulation. The capital markets regulator has already approved advance payouts for affected investors, and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek says the broader risk to the financial system is contained. The scandal has also widened into a parliamentary inquiry.

Türkiye's Aegean airspace restriction still in force as Ankara prepares maritime law

Türkiye's Aegean airspace restriction still in force as Ankara prepares maritime law

A Turkish notice closing five Aegean areas and six air routes for what Ankara calls search-and-rescue and environmental missions remains in force until October 27, after Athens issued a counter-notice saying it does not recognise Turkey's right to use those areas for military activity, whatever the notice calls it. The dispute lands as the Turkish parliament, back in session in October, is expected to take up a draft law codifying Ankara's position that Greek islands do not automatically generate full maritime zones. Greece rejects that premise outright, so the law's passage would harden rather than settle the two NATO allies' oldest dispute.

Europe

G7 agrees emergency release of 100 million barrels to ease diesel squeeze

G7 agrees emergency release of 100 million barrels to ease diesel squeeze

G7 countries agreed on October 2 to release 100 million barrels of strategic oil reserves over four months, coordinated through the International Energy Agency, with a large diesel share required within the first 20 days. The move follows an overnight call between Macron and Trump, after Washington threatened a diesel export ban amid a supply squeeze that has pushed pump prices to records. Officials caution that releasing crude does not instantly produce diesel, so the relief European drivers see this winter depends on refinery capacity nobody can simply order into existence.

Eurozone inflation jumps to 3.8%, a three-year high

Eurozone inflation jumps to 3.8%, a three-year high

Eurostat's flash estimate put September inflation at 3.8%, above forecasts of 3.6 to 3.7% and up from 3.2% in August, the highest reading since 2023. Energy prices drove the rise, up to 18.8% from 14.3%, as the US war against Iran disrupts Middle East fuel supplies, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, while core inflation also ticked up to 2.5%. Economists expect the European Central Bank to hold off on raising rates until December rather than react in October, a forecast that will not survive if the energy shock does not fade.

Ceuta tensions escalate: migrant children stabbed, beach declared unsafe

Ceuta tensions escalate: migrant children stabbed, beach declared unsafe

Two underage migrants were treated for knife wounds after a fight on October 1 in Ceuta's La Marina district, and Spanish health authorities the next day declared the beach where many migrants camp unsafe after tests found bacteria levels exceeding safety standards. The incidents add to a crisis that has left migrants housed in garages, vehicles and overcrowded flats since tens of thousands arrived in the Spanish enclave. French President Macron, who backs Spain's position, called for EU action on September 30, which has yet to produce a concrete measure, and each new incident sharpens the question of who pays for shelter Ceuta says it does not have.

The World

North Korea fires ballistic missile as Kim Yo Jong rules out reconciliation

North Korea fires ballistic missile as Kim Yo Jong rules out reconciliation

North Korea fired a ballistic missile on October 2 from the port city of Wonsan that flew more than 700 kilometres into the sea, prompting Japan to issue an emergency alert and South Korea to raise its military alert status. The launch follows Kim Yo Jong's rejection of Seoul's apology demands over landmine blasts that injured South Korean soldiers, with Kim declaring the North intends “permanent separation” from the South. The US Pacific Command called the launch no immediate threat to American forces, but Kim's language closes off reconciliation rhetoric the North had at least nominally kept open in recent years.

Sudan's army says it seized RSF's main North Kordofan stronghold

Sudan's army says it seized RSF's main North Kordofan stronghold

The Sudanese army said on October 2 it had captured al-Mazroub, describing it as the Rapid Support Forces' largest stronghold in North Kordofan and a town linking the state to RSF-held West Kordofan. An army spokesman said the advance aims to cut the paramilitary group's supply lines between its central and western strongholds. Kordofan has become the war's main battleground since late 2025, so control of that link matters more than the town itself, in a conflict now in its fourth year with no negotiated end in sight.

US and Australia suspend diplomatic operations in Brazil days before election

US and Australia suspend diplomatic operations in Brazil days before election

The United States suspended consular services in Brasília on October 2, and Australia closed its embassy the same day; both cited security concerns without elaborating, three days before Brazil's presidential election. Lula da Silva, 80 and seeking a fourth term, and Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, are in a dead heat according to polls, with a runoff expected on October 25 if neither wins outright. Lula's party called the US move politically motivated, a charge that will be hard to settle either way but that lands in a race already shaped by claims of outside interference.

Sweden

Speaker reappoints Andersson to try again to form Swedish government

Speaker reappoints Andersson to try again to form Swedish government

Parliament's speaker, Andreas Norlén, reappointed Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson on October 2 to try again to build a government, after her first attempt collapsed on September 30 when the Left Party backed the Moderates' candidate for speaker instead of her coalition. Norlén said parliament's underlying arithmetic has not changed, so Andersson returns to the same task from October 5, with an October 12 deadline to report progress or submit her candidacy for a vote. A second attempt on an unchanged parliamentary map suggests the deadlock is about trust between parties, not about numbers.

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